Under the Big Top: And the search goes on…looking west (again) to Portland?
Posted on May 7th, 2009 – 10:16 PMBy Jerry Zgoda
Just a day after I believed the Wolves had narrowed their search to former Indiana GM David Kahn, Glen Taylor and Rob Moor apparently continue it anew with a candidate in town this week.
I heard it was a candidate from within the Northwest division, possibly Portland assistant GM Tom Penn, the Blazers’ salary-capologist.
The first guy I thought of was Rex Chapman in Denver, who was with the organization for a brief time about three years ago. But it’s probably not him because he was at Nuggets practice today and I’m guessing the guy was in town today.
Sorry, but I don’t think it’s Bill Simmons, either.
What seems certain is this will go into the weekend. I’m heading off tomorrow morning on a week’s vacation that I thought I was safe in planning more than three weeks after the season end. Now I’m thinking there’s an outside chance I may still get to cover the new GM/VP hire after I return May 15.
I heard this evening Taylor and Moor are cooling on one candidate the more they learn about him. Sure sounds to me like that could be Kahn, who without a doubt the owner and team CEO were very serious about.
Randy Pfund has remained quiet since he called me back Saturday and I haven’t heard that he’s out so I’d say he’s still a possibility.
Penn, like Kahn, seems mostly like a finance/salary-cap guy, which makes it look like Taylor is looking for a guy like that to complement Fred Hoiberg’s scouting eye. Unlike Kahn, he’s been in the league for the last nine years, including two with the up-and-coming Blazers.
He worked for Jerry West for five of his eight years in Memphis.
If he’s the hire, though, talk about culture shock, going from Blazers owner Paul Allen to Taylor.
Here’s a Q and A interview with him from last fall on cap and other matters.
http://www.blazersedge.com/2008/9/25/622134/blazersedge-exclusive-a-ch
Brian Stensaas will be monitoring the situation while I’m gone and will post on the blog as things develop. I might weigh in if I get chance as this progresses.
391 Responses to "Under the Big Top: And the search goes on…looking west (again) to Portland?"
The longer this takes the better chance they finally hire thre right guy in Sam Hinkie. Thanks for the update Jerry, and don’t worry I’m sure you won’t miss anything in the next week. Well except for the biggest hire Glenn Taylor has made in the last 10+ years.
Glad to hear that Khan may be out. I’ll keep my glimmer of hope out for Simmons, but will settle for Pfund.
Jama-
Who is Sam Hinkie?
I actually like Hinke a lot but haven’t heard any rumblings of him being considered. Maybe that will change…
Jama, why do you like Sam Hinkie so much? I’m always suspicious of guys who look to me like stat-numbers geeks. It’s a people game and I think that kind of number crunching doesn’t account for the humanity in the game.
I think I’ll live if I miss that biggest decision in 10 years. Barely, but I will.
This whole Bill Simmons thing reminds me of Jessie Ventura’s gubernatorial campaign, even though I can’t in a kajillion years see the same outcome happening.
re: Hinkie
Hinkie comes from the Rockets, meaning he brings a lot of statistical analysis to the game (think sabermetrics in baseball). Not sure how he is from “human” side of things in terms of evaluating personnel, but if he tells you he’s playing matchups you can rest assured that he has irrefutable evidence to back it up. I personally would take him over Pfund and after Lindsey (I won’t even mention Ka–), as Hinkie is still currently involved with the league where Pfund is not.
“I’m always suspicious of guys who look to me like stat-numbers geeks. It’s a people game and I think that kind of number crunching doesn’t account for the humanity in the game.”
Jerry that sounds suspiciously like the rationale people use to overrate the likes of Nick Punto. Or to put it back in a basketball context Brian Cardinal. Whenever someone starts talking about “things that don’t show up in the box score” I get suspicious.
I just think numbers tell only part of the story, and not always the most important parts.
Jerry, go take your well deserved vacation. We and the folks will hold it down for you.
Again, if the Wolves can find a proven GM success as a candidate, give it to Fred.
Who’s Nick Punto?
So let’s play a game: Who do you consider the most gettable, desirable candidate from a Northwest Division team? And you can’t have Sam Presti or Kevin Pritchard.
Incidentally, I side with Jerry on the numbers guy. Numbers and numbers based match up are only one aspect. They give you a historical look-back, but you can drive ahead looking in the rear view mirror.
Dear Glen Taylor,
I am begging you to give Bill Simmons a chance. I know you’re a smart businessman so let me break it down for you…If you want to sell more tickets and improve your bottom line then Bill Simmons is the answer. He will turn your team from irrelevant to relevant overnight and immediately get people interested again. Just because he has no prior experience in professional sports does not mean he is not capable of succeeding. Look at the Tampa Bay Rays who hired a couple of Goldman Sachs guys to run their operations. It worked for them, the same type of strategy can work for you and the Wolves. Simmons is highly intelligent and knows the NBA inside and out.Please listen to your fans and give him a shot, what do you have to lose at this point???
I’d take Chapman…
The Bill Simmons talk shows just how out of touch some people are…
Hoopsguru you are anything but a hoops guru. Go fly a kite tool.
Please explain yourself…if anything it absolutely shows how IN TOUCH the fans are.
Well…if it’s not Rex Chapman, there aren’t many other options. I doubt Kevin O’Conner is leaving the Jazz, and neither Presti or Pritchard are going anywhere.
So that leaves, Rich Cho or Troy Weaver out of Oklahoma, or Tom Penn out of Portland. Unless Taylor is looking completely outside the general manager ranks (unlikely).
Well. This is odd. I imagine I’m in the same boat as Jerry…there’s really no name that stands out to me in the Northwest division…
Jerry do you know anything about Walt Perrin? I see he has some old twolves ties and currently with the Jazz.
If Hinkie had been around the last three years we probably would have kept Roy, drafted Stucky or Noah over Brewer and still done the trade for Love. All those players had the superior efficiency stats - we made one good move in the last three years (despite all our picks being good character guys). Once you determine if the guy has the athletics and character you want then the stats can help make the decision between candidates. Case in point - both Roy and Foye had the athletics and character you want, but Roy was always the more efficient player in college. Still, is Hinkie even under consideration? Can he do the rest of the job? I know little about Kahn - but what little I’ve read - not sure he is on the up and up.
I remember Perrin from my first time around covering the Wolves. Nice guy, very low-key and unassuming, as I remember. He has been with a couple of pretty good organizations — Detroit and the Jazz — since then.
Jerry, have you heard anything about us possibly interviewing Portland assistant GM Tom Penn?
Don’t know that for a fact, that’s what I’m trying to figure out. Hence the discussion here about possible candidates from the Northwest Division. He’d be one of the most obvious choices from that pool, I’d think. He’s been tutoring under Kevin Pritchard the past two seasons and was with Memphis for six or seven seasons before that.
Robson’s going with Penn on his blog.
I’m thinking it’s Tom Penn too. The Thunder assistant GMs just don’t make sense. By record, the Thunder as still as bad as us, and Presti is just barely into his 30s….omething tells me Taylor won’t see a guy that young as a credible “mentor” figure.
Hopefully we can get confirmation on a name real soon. I’m guessing Penn, but the way this search is going, you never know. Taylor might have pulled one out of left field like Bill Branch.
What about Bill Beek? I hear he’d be available, if he wasn’t dead.
What about Chad Buchanan & Mike Born of the Blazers? they are the top scouts in Portland. Why are they so focused on Lawyers & Cap guys?
Haaaa didn’t you write about him when you called out the team for that stupid Don Overbeck thing? Man, am I ever glad they killed that campaign. That guy actually made me miss Sweetwater Jones…
At least Sweetwater’s cowjumping commercial was amusing…
The way I read the lawyer-capologist thing is, Taylor’s already decided Hoiberg’s going to be head his personnel/talent side but I think he’s concerned that Fred lacks the experience to run the whole operation, especially the business side. That’s why it looks like the search has turned from a personnel/talent evaluator guy to a financial specialist. I think that turn of events, if accurate, makes it more likely McHale returns as well. If you team the new guy with Hoiberg, that gives you continuity and keeps the guy who has been working on the draft all season in a year the Wolves own three first-round picks.
Well, from what we know about the other candidates, Taylor is sticking pretty exclusively to assistant GMs or former GMs, so I’d assume he’s sticking to that.
Plus, I think you do need a guy who has some background in the business side. The collective bargaining agreement is set to expire soon and it looks like negotiations for the new one are going to get ugly. Taylor’s probably trying to hedge his bets there since he was so deeply involved in the lockout that happened the last time the CBA expired.
Jerry, so if Kahn’s out of the picture, does that mean Mitchell’s out, too?
Man…good point Josh. I guess it might just delay it a year since it appears McHale has no intention of coaching long term. But who knows if he’ll change his mind or what team might come calling for Mitchell this year…
I don’t know. I’m thinking McHale might have more faith in working for a guy who has been in the league the last nine years, has just been with Portland and was with Jerry West than a guy who hasn’t been in the league since 2002. Guess that Mitchell scenario was thrown out assuming McHale would walk (or be pushed) if Kahn was hired. It doesn’t make sense to me to have McHale just come back for one more year. I’d think it’d have to be probably three or nothing.
The way this appears to be heading, it looks to me like it’s still going to be a collaborative process — with Taylor still having his say — than one guy with the power to run the show. Lindsey wanted to be that guy, and it sounds like that was the breaking point.
Think that’s something Taylor will put on him? Or would he expect Hoiberg/New GM Guy too?
I’d hate to miss out on Sam because Mac is being a waffle. A three year commitment from McHale sounds more like a one year commitment with a year and another year of “player options” to me.
One thing’s for sure: Mitchell would be in immensely popular hire. I was at the Thunder game he appeared at, and when I was waiting in line to get his autograph, all the guys ahead and behind me were trying to get him to say he’d coach us in 09. The guy is just so well loved here.
I thought Taylor was going to finally change his philosophy and let one guy call all the shots.
Portland’s the quality organization of the moment, but everyone gives that credit to Pritchard. It is true that they’ve been shrewd about the cap lately, though partly that was just their willingness to use Allen’s money as the lever. They picked up Roy in exchange for their willingness to eat LaFrentz’s contract for a few extra years. The Blazers have also shown some discipline (in Glen Taylor’s preferred sense) — by subsequently eating that same LaFrentz contract instead of dealing it this year, for example.
My main reaction, though, is that if Taylor and company are cooling on Kahn after learning more about the guy, they *clearly* have not done their homework. Weren’t all the background checks supposed to be done before the regular season ended? I’m pretty sure Taylor said so in one of his interviews. Er, apparently not.
Bill Simmons could have a role in my front office. It would be the role of devil’s advocate — the guy who tested our assumptions about any given deal, maybe with a special eye to how fans might react. Organizations need someone like that to prevent lock-stepped Taylor-McHale groupthink stuff. As an actual GM candidate, he’s a fun columnist.
Sam Mitchell’s a mensch. People like Ryan Gomes for some of the same qualities. They’re solid people. Your diehard fan, though, wonders if Mitchell isn’t too much of a Wittman type to develop young talent.
Kevin McHale’s not tactician, but his player’s coach MO seems to have worked for the team in the short term. Mitchell even as a player was pretty confrontational, and as a coach he has a history of things like calling Rafer Alston out in the media. Those two guys feuded for most of a year, and finally Alston got dealt. He also seems to have lost Bosh, though maybe it was just that Colangelo wanted his own guy on the bench.
Would Mitchell come in, see the porous defense, and start trying to light a fire under Jefferson in a way that would turn him off? That’s the question with Sammy.
Best news I’ve heard in awhile that Kahn may be out of the running. What a mistake that would be to hire him.
Maybe Taylor is reading these things.
Its sad that they wouldnt have done thier homework more upfront. But who knows. Maybe it was never offered to him.
If my choices for coach are McHale or Mitchell, I’ll take what’s behind door #3.
McHale can’t stay with this team. Period. He’s an adequate coach, but his presence and his unusually close relationship with Taylor make him a liability for the new person being able to establish themselves.
Can someone tell me why Fred Hoiberg gets a free pass in all the discussions about new/old regimes? Zgoda refers to his “scouting eye” in this article but what evidence exists of Hoiberg having any talent evaulation skills at all? Because he seems like a well-spoken guy who’s from the area (Iowa City is close enough)? Sorry, but that’s proposterous. I would be just as disappointed if a new GM was forced to keep Hoiberg as I would be if he was forced to keep McHale. Does anyone have any reason why we should trust Hoiberg?
There are only a handful of qualified head coaches in the NBA. Kevin McHale has a great deal of on-the-court basketball knowledge, and was a good coach for this team last year. In my mind, the only questions as to whether to bring him back is - does he have the desire to put in the time and effort for another year or two. If you look at the evolution of the Pistons in the early 90’s, even a year or two with a head coach (each Carlisle and Brown) can make a big difference in player development. I loved Sam as a player, but you have to say the results were mixed in Toronto.
This process can’t be about punishing McHale and Taylor for past sins, it has to be about finding a pro who can run the office. McHale and Taylor made some mistakes (Ebi, Jaric, Joe Smith contract) and had some big-time bad breaks (Marbury wants out, Brandon’s knees, Wally’s feet, Malik Sealy car crash). (KG didn’t help either with convincing Taylor to resign his buddies Hassell and Hudson to big contracts.) But they have recovered well since deciding to cut KG loose. There is a cornerstone (Al), young talent (Gomes, Love, Brewer, Foye), and roster/contract flexibility. There are moves to be made this summer. Hiring someone with a focus on the business side works, though I would personally prefer it is not Kahn.
Did McHale really do that good of a job last year? If you look back at January, a lot of those wins don’t look that great in retrospect. We beat teams with injured players, and the wheels were already starting to come off before Jefferson’s injury. Then, the team limped home with some particularly dreadful efforts at Target Center down the stretch.
Yes, he’s a lot better than Randy Wittman, but that’s judging McHale on a very low bar. Why is there such a need for continuity given the complete lack of accomplishment by the current regime?
Sean - If the choice was between Sam & McHale for the coach and you are looking solely at the coaching position for the team without any impact factors on the front office…who do you take as the coach ?
If Cassell retires we should hire him as an assistant ! Have him teach Bassy how to shoot ! Have him teach Foye how to run a proper PG !
I’m only half serious about my previous suggestion. Sammy ruled.
Swan
Cassell already signed on with Flip as an Assistant for the Wizards.
Ohhhhhhhhh yeah ! I forgot.
This new news fully makes me believe that Taylor cares more about how this hire is viewed publicly than how it will turn this franchise around. I by no means thought Kahn was a good hire, but if you go through the process and he’s the guy you like then don’t you hire him. It almost seems like they threw out feelers through Jerry and the media to see how the fan base would respond to Kahn getting hired. Obviously all the reaction was negative and now Taylor is back tracking and starting all over. That is not the proper way to go about hiring the head of your franchise. I’m glad it looks like Kahn isn’t going to get hired but it sure seems Taylor is going about this the wrong way.
I don’t know why we need a “capologist.”
No free agents will ever want to come here.
Jerry,
Sam Hinkie would provide two things in my opinion. First he is a numbers guy when it comes to statistical analysis which has worked in every other sport and seems to be working in the NBA. He has learned how to evaluate players by both analysis and by scouting. The Wolves are so far behind in scouting in my opinion that statistical analysis can do nothing but help this team. Second he also can work the cap which it seems Glen Taylor is looking for.
He actually appears to be the perfect hire for Glen but he of course is too dumb to see that. Hinkie is a numbers guy first who has learned to be a basketball guy second. I think he is a combination of a scout and a capologist. He has worked with two of the more successful organizations over the last 5 years(Bos & Houston) and by all accounts has done an excellent job at both locations.
Rodman
A capologist does much more then handle free agents. They handle the entire financial side of the team. This includes trades, exemptions, and free agency. In todays game a capologist is probably the 3rd most important member of the organization behind the GM and the coach.
Matt,
You cite what is now thought to be the truth, that KG forced management to sign his buddies. That may be the case, but if it is, it still on the execs, who signed the players, not KGs suggestion.
Also, to me, a more likely explanation is that McHale lost out on a series of big free agents- Billips, Guggliota, etc. So then he started signing marginal talent to ridiculously long and generous contracts- Hassell, Hudson, Madson, etc.
All it takes is a little leak from a guy like McHale to sell the story in the public.
That’s just my theory, I may be wrong.
While I’m getting all worked up on revising Wolves history, here’s my theory on the Sprewell situation.
He said to management that he only wanted to play two more years. They offer him a three year deal (a fair deal for sure), one that he doesn’t want. Wolves look good in the public eye and Spree looks like an idiot (thanks to his infamous comment). To me it was a very clever way for Wolves mgmt to get out of signing him and still look good.
I think you will see a similar situation this off season with Rasheed Wallace. He said he wants to play one more season. All the Pistons have to do is offer him a two/three year deal, and force him to retire. They look good in the process.
Bill Simmons has got to be loving this. The guy has no business, front office or scouting experience and yet has managed to gain himself some free publicity by lobbying for a job he’s not qualified for nor will he ever get. Can’t believe so many people are buying into it.
Swan - For this team — independent of any other factors — I would probably pick McHale.
I know Jama, Just poking a little fun at a cheap franchise.
I think Bill Simmons is lost in a Manny swoon. Hilarious article today about him.
Sean - Ideally I want the Nets to stink, have Frank get fired and join the Wolves next year. So McHale should give us a farewell tour ! But thats dependent on so many things and unlikely.
To me, what this organization needs at the top of the front office chart is someone who fills two key roles:
1.) A leader. Someone with a clear vision of what kind of team they want to build and how they want to build it. Someone who can get the rest of the organization to buy in and who can articulate that vision to a public that has lost faith in this organization’s decision making ability.
2.) A talent evaluator. The person in this role needs to not only be able to evaluate basketabll players, but the coaches and scouts that report to them.
To me, one of the assistant GMs should be the “capologist”. The head guy needs to understand the cap, but he should spend his time on other things that working through the intricacies of the cap. When it comes time to make a trade or sign a FA, you bring the capologist in to help you craft the deal.
No, McHale should not give us a farewell tour. Now is the time to make the coaching change.
I think the ship has sailed but I’ve always liked Kiki Vandeweghe. Thought he did a decent job in Denver and if he had anything to do with Devon Harris for Jason Kidd he’s a genius.
Sean - If McHale’s farewell tour just bridged the gap before a potential Frank hiring wouldn’t you do it ? Again, thats assuming multiple other things happen.
No, I would not do it. It’s time for this organization to move on. You can’t bank on a guy being fired. (And, if you think the guy’s a good coach, why would you expect him to get fired anyway?)
Agreed. I like McHale too. And I’ll go one step further and say I think he’s kind of become a different person in recent years. He’s more positive and less arrogant. Some personal transformation there.
All that said, I think it’s best to move on. Once you’ve been the boss, you’ll always be meddling, that’s just the way it is.
I just want Frank as the coach is all 
If Mitchell is named coach does that mean we can expect him to challenge Foye to a fight?
If the favorites are all cap guys and we will use the same scouts what is going to be different. I would rather see someone who could see talent then someone who could get us under the cap. The Cap wasn’t the reason behind the bad trades and drafts of the past. Maybe the contracts of Hassell and Hudson but the scouts probably said they were good and it was Portland that gave Hassell the contract anyways. Besides our current Cap guys got Jefferson, Gomes, Smith and Telfair on the cheap and cleared nearly all the bad contracts already. What is a new Cap guy doing to do that is different?
Bill Simmons just had a 15-minute interview on KFAN with PA and Charch… he sounds like a funny rube. I’ve always liked his work on ESPN as well.
It’s been a nice publicity stunt for sure, but does anybody actually think it has a real chance of happening?
you can’t have tom penn! stay away from our blazers.
I posted this comment earlier but will just state it again to see if Jerry or anyone else can explain how Hoiberg has demonstrated that he should be tasked with evaluating talent. It seems like many people would be happy with a new GM, no McHale, but with Hoiberg still in a key role. I just don’t get why we would give this guy a free pass.
Mike:
I’ve gone through this process before, so if you would like to have the answer to your Hoiberg question, I would personally challenge you to find Hoiberg’s hiring date and post it on this blog. Next, find every single transaction The Wolves have made during that time and then tell the board your objective, honest, no-agenda-having opinion on each and every one of those moves.
Do you have the guts to do that?
Foo - Yah he is funny. Used to be a writer for Kimmel I believe.
If they want my money, it’ll happen, if they don’t it won’t.
Obviously Simmons is in this for the publicity, he has a new book coming out soon. That being said he hasn’t actually said one thing he would do as a GM that would improve the play on the court. The suggestions he has made are all about Marketing and really nothing about putting a winning team on the floor. I know he isn’t going to get hired but I thought I would bring it to all your attention that he really isn’t qualified and hasn’t said one basketball related suggestion that would make the Wolves better. Winning cures all the negativity not selling tickets at half price and being open to the public.
This organizations needs a Bill Simmons. I know he’s rough around the edges, but he has some great ideas, some great basketball insight and a following of fans all across the nation. With the exception of one year, this team has not really made an impact on this community at all. They need a major overhaul on all facets of the busness.
jama:
He has said things, specifically, that you have to find 3 stars/above average starters, pay those guys, and then don’t overpay for players 4-15 since you can always find replacement level role players. That is what he meant by the Boston, San Antonio thinking…Allen, Pierce KG and Duncan, Parker, Ginobili.
He’s also said that looking back at the last championships teams of the previous 20 years, most of them have this type of model, 3 stars you pay and the rest you don’t.
He has stated emphatically which is the key to any franchise in my opinion, “DONT OVERPAY FOR ROLE PLAYERS.”
He’s stated he would currently build around Al, Love, Brewer, Foye, and the future picks. I think Al and Love could be 2 of those three, but we need help on the perimiter.
I just don’t get what someone he has spent minimal time in a front office become more qualified to make personnel decisions. Hoiberg was a player for the 90’s, Simmons watched a ton of games during those years when Hoiberg was playing. Personally, I’d rather have a guy who watches games, theorizes what makes a good team and a bad team, and looks for evidence to prove his assertions over a former player who bases his judgments off the teams he faced as a player.
As for this business about a capologist, what a bunch of puffery that you all seem to eat up. What does it really take to know the collective bargaining agreement, trade exemptions, medical exemptions, etc. These are not complicated issues in a sport with only a 15 person roster.
Marketing to sponsors and fans is far more important. And trying to sell a sponsor on a year or several year contract is a lot easier when the product on the court is good enough to get buts in the seats. Choosing the right talent is far more important than having a cigar smoking attorney who can relate to Marketer’s working for the sponsor.
With the moves Taylor has made the last few years…do we really think they were basketball decisions or financial decisions: 1. Foye for Roy 2. Pretty much handing Brandon Rush to Miami 3. Love for Mayo
It was Chalmers, not Rush…sorry
I don’t think it’s a novel idea at all, but I do really like the concept of going with three stars and letting the other folks walk if they want the pay-day. I also agree with Simmons’ that we’ve got a 1-A and a 3 in Al and Love… now we just need to get a guard who can be a 1-B to Al’s 1-A.
In other words - if folks like Foye, Brewer, Gomes, Rhino, Telfair, etc want to stick around, I’d really like to have them. I’d be willing to give them competitive, market-based offers. But if they want to go play for The Clippers for $1M more, then adios.
Shawn Bradley Guy - Love/Miller/Cardinal FOR Mayo/Jaric/A.Walker/G.Buckner was nothing other than a basketball move… but there were some very nice financial benefits as well.
Foo:
I couldn’t agree more. All those players you mentioned are not people you pay. Signing Gomes and Rhino for 2 years until 2010 was fine, because we aren’t going to be spending or deciding who the three were going to pay until that time. But anyone advocating resiging guys like Carney, Telfair, Rhino, Gomes, Brewer, Foye, beyond that is nuts. You can always find cheap replacement level talent from the D-Leauge, trades or other avenues where it’s insance to give any of these players tons of money. Especially as contending teams have shown when you have three stars, players will want to accept less money on short term deals to come win a championship.
Bill Simmons is joking people.
I think he appeals to all of us because we all are secretly think that we could run a team better than most.
I’m pretty sure we can’t.
Centrist Sean - right on.
I like all those 2nd-tier players we’ve got, but how many wins do you think Rodney Carney brings to a team? I’d say zero. Foye, Gomes and Brewer are probably worth 3-4 wins apiece.
The point is that guys like that who are good for 3-4 wins are readilty available on the cheap.
Based on all the contracts we’ve given out over the past 2-3 years, I’m very encouraged by that. 4-6 years ago, we were doling out long-term deals (that were doubly bad because they were often for $4M-$5M per year) to guys like Jaric, Hudson, Madsen and Hassell. Now we’re giving players in that same class 2-year deals that are in the very manageable $2M-$3M per year range.
We’ve got a long ways to go, no doubt, but we seem to have our stuff together as it relates to our 2nd-tier players and how we should pay them.
Do we really feel this team is going somewhere if Love is our 3rd best player on the team? This is a perimeter oriented league and we think two of our top three players are post players. I don’t see this as formula for success.
I don’t mind Love, I just don’t see how we think this team is going anywhere without good, consistent play from somebody on the perimeter (any we probably need two of them to step up).
David Robinson and Tim Duncan played together, but David was on the downside of his career…I can’t name another team with much success with two of their three best players being post players.
Foo -
I agree that the contracts given out now have been much better; however, that doesn’t stop me from being apprehensive about the future. When the team isn’t doing well, it’s a lot easier to sell the fans and sponsors about not resigning people because these players haven’t brought us Wins.
If Al comes back strongly next year, Foye does his best Ben Gordon impersonation and has a good year as a scoring undersized two, and we squeak in for the 8 seed, that’s the situation to test management.
What does a GM do day to day? Hire coaches, draft players, sign free agents, evaluate how everything is going, etc? How can anyone not in the loop suggest that Lindsey is better than Kahn or that whoever is better than whoever? Just like any job interview you need to impress the person that is hiring. Bill Simmons could do a great job as GM but who’s to say that you or I couldn’t do better or worse? Unfortunately his interview will be scheduled after yours and mine. This could be an easy job for anyone as it will be hard to not improve on the last few years. I don’t care who they hire and can’t pretend that I know who will be the right fit. I will also wait until they announce it because I can’t influence Glen’s decision.
Paul Allen for GM!
I just think it’s easy to make the calls whether it’s a coach/GM or even at our place of work, when we are sitting on the sidelines watching. When you are in the hot seat, it’s a whole different game.
Shawn Bradley Guy - Try the Lakers. Bynum and Gasol…2 of their 3 best players are post players.
New Orleans - West & Chandler…2 of the 3 best players.
Also, the reason you don’t see many teams with 2 of their 3 best players being post players or bigs is because: NOT MANY TEAMS HAVE TWO GOOD BIGS BECAUSE THERE AREN’T A WHOLE LOT OF GOOD BIGS. Good wings are easier to find than good bigs.
I think the better point is that Love isn’t good enough to be a top 3 player on a team.
Centrist
If you think Simmons is the first person to come up with the “build a team around 3 all-stars” you are a fool. Or that he is the first to say, “don’t overpay for role players”. First off those statements have been said for years. Second, it’s much easier said then done. How many teams in the NBA have 2 stars let alone 3? The Wolves currently have one star, I’d love to hear how he would obtain the other two stars that are needed to build an NBA champion caliber team. Simmons can talk the talk but how do we know he can walk the walk? He has never shown what he would do in that situation because he has never even been in a room where that situation is being debated.
Like I said, most of the things Simmons is saying he would do are marketing related which in my opinion isn’t in the top 100 things a GM should be worrying about. The Wolves have a marketing and advertising department for a reason. If he wants a job with them I’m sure the Wolves would listen.
Rodman - A double double machine is always good enough to be the 3rd best player on the team. Plus last year was his floor…his ceiling is a superior rebounding Brad Miller with better shooting and passing. Doesn’t sound that bad to me.
Foo:
April 17, 2006, Fred Hoiberg takes a job in the Timberwolves front office.
Timberwolves Transactions after Hoiberg joining front office:
June 28, 2006: Traded draft rights to Brandon Roy to Portland for draft rights to Randy Foye and cash
considerations
Me: In the top three blunders of an organization with an inordinate amount of blunders. Grade: F
June 28, 2006: Traded draft rights to Bobby Jones to Philadelphia for a future second-round draft pick
and cash considerations
Me: Whatever. Grade: C
July 31, 2007: Traded Kevin Garnett to Boston for Al Jefferson, Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes, Theo Ratliff, Gerald Green and two future first-round draft picks
Me: No problem with this, though I think they could’ve gotten more had they traded him earlier. Grade: B
Sep. 29, 2007: Traded Trenton Hassell to Dallas for Greg Buckner
Me: Good to get rid of Hassell’s bloated contract and gained future piece of Garnett trade. Grade: B+
Oct. 24, 2007: Traded Mark Blount and Ricky Davis to Miami for Antoine Walker, Michael Doleac and a
future first-round draft pick
Me: Good to get rid of those two stiffs. How they use the draft pick this year will determine how well this trade turned out. Grade: Incomplete
Feb. 21, 2008: Aquired guard Kirk Snyder, a second-round draft pick and cash considerations from
Houston in exchange for forward Gerald Green.
Me: Criminal for a stiff. Grade: C+
June 26, 2008: Traded draft rights to O.J. Mayo, Marko Jaric, Greg Buckner and Antoine Walker to Memphis for draft rights to Kevin Love, Brian Cardinal and Jason Collins
Me: Though Mayo could still come back to haunt us, decent when considering Jaric’s contract. Grade: B+
July 9, 2008: Aquired Rodney Carney, Calvin Booth and a first-round draft pick from Philadelphia in exchange for a future conditional second-round draft pick.
Me: Decent considering Carney could have a place on the team and the first round pick. Grade: B+
In addition they’ve drafted the following players not mentioned in the above transactions while Hoiberg has been there: Craig Smith, Loukas Mavrokefalidis, Corey Brewer, Chris Richard, Nikola Pekovic.
Overall, not terrible but certainly not sterling. I realize he did not have ultimate authority but my argument still stands that we have no idea if Hoiberg is qualified to be the talent evaluator on this team. I don’t have a particular agenda but I’m just curious as to why this guy deserves to hang around.
Swan Dizzle-
Kobe and Gasol…you could throw anyone (Odom, the ugly european shooter, etc) next to those two to make your point.
Chandler was so good for New Orleans that they were trying to trade him away until he didn’t pass the physical, plus they have Paul.
Those are two lame examples, especially when we are not even brining up that Kobe and Paul are both on those teams. My point is the T’wolves need a high caliber perimeter presence, and probably two of those to make a serious run.
Swan, He’s no doubt a valuable piece but a role player nonetheless.
If he was a great (or even good) defender I’d have a different opinion.
His numbers were put up for an awful team in losing efforts (i.e. see David Lee in NY).
Jama:
At least Simmons opinions are out there for public debate with Fans. You want to judge hoiberg or others based on what you think their strategies may be, but you have no idea.
People can talk about how great Portland’s situation is, but until their GM gets some guts to trade some of that young talent for guys that can carry a team during a protion of a game, they are always going to be playoff fodder.
That is what I would like this team to do, draft young talent, develop it, then assess the market and trade that young talent before you have to pay them and screw up your salary cap situation for a proven 4-7 year veteran you are comfortable paying.
Simmons can talk the talk, and you are right, we don’t know if he can walk the walk. But in a sport where 80% of GM’s fail, why are you so quick to write him off. Chances are good that whoever we hire is going to fail, why not make it more fun for the fans rolling the dice on a guy that has opinions we can argue about, and has shown he will try and relate to fans.
People on the board fawn over Dennis Linsey, ok, but he has no opinions we can evaluate because he was the assistant GM to Buford and Poppovich is also their. How do we know which decisions he made and which the others were responsible for.
I understand your feelings of bitterness that the TWolves could hire an unconventional guy, but I just don’t understand why you are so convinced he couldn’t be the guy.
Mike - Two things, as stated a bazillion times, Hoiberg was only around for a little bit before the Roy / Foye deal…still learning the ropes a bit…hard to fault him for that.
Second, I believe Buckner was part of the Mayo-Love deal, not KG deal.
How is Mayo gonna haunt us ? Its harder to find 10+ RPG (he isn’t now, but everyone knows he will be) guys than it is to find 18 PPG jackers. McCants is very similiar to Mayo. But McCants was a bonehead.
Swan,
Saying Mayo was a jacker is really unfair.
The guy played under control and shot a very high percentage. He is the real deal and will be a very good player in the league. Whether he is a superstar remains to be seen.
Rebounders are much easier to find than a guy who can created his own shot and score from anywhere on the floor.
Why do you think we lost so many games when it was close in the 4th? Because we had no one, including Big Al, who can get their own shot when the D tightens.
jama simmons would be a hell of alot better than that stupid stat geek you suggest.
Rodman:
I think I just lost credibility in your ability to draw conclusions. May can’t creat his own shot. Just look at Mayo’s ability to draw foul shots,
Mayo 1283 FGA and 281 FTA
Foye 981 FGA and 272 FTA
OJ Mayo is exactly the player we thought he was on draft night. A good perimiter shooter, a good defender, little slashing ability, not a good enough passer to play the point.
Besides, if you want OJ Mayo so much we can just draft the same type of player in James Harden this year. Unfortunately, their are no players similar to Kevin Love available.
Rodman - 43% from 2 and 38% from 3 is a “very high percentage” ? Really ?
And his biggest knock is he can’t create off the dribble.
His stats are similar to McCants…in fact McCants shot at a high percentage his rookie year and in his first year with free reign on a lousy team had better %’s.
Are rebounders much easier to find ? Show me the stats…because I can show you more jackers / scorers than excellent rebounders.
Mayo won’t haunt us because there will be guys we can trade or draft for an “instant” scoring role.
OK, I’ll play along for a minute here. Let’s say that hiring a writer as GM isn’t crazy. Here’s my next question: why Simmons?
There’s plenty of other knowledgable NBA writers. Is Simmons the most knowledgable? Why not hire Britt Robson, a guy who’s followed the Wolves for pretty much their entire existence? Or the proprietor of this blog?
Sean:
One, because they haven’t thrown their hat in the ring. Two, because the lasting national publicity of a nationally known writer becoming our GM and then writing a Book that will most likely sell many copies offer the team more long term benefits in terms of popularity. Just as an idea, if their was a Timberwolves “Simmons” jersey how much could the team make off that alone. Third, from hs annual rankings of of the top 300 Tradeable assets in the NBA, to his more leaguewide persepective on things, I think he brings more knowledge to the table that Britt or Jerry would covering strictly the T-Wolves.
That is nothing against either Britt or Jerry. I absolutely love Britt’s blog and read all his posts throughout the season.
arenal
I know you are trolling which I will never understand, but ask Simmons which front office type he would emulate and I guarantee you either Hinkie or Morey would be in his top 3. He has stated many times how far ahead of the curve these guys are. So rather than hiring Simmons why not hire the guy he is trying to emulate?
Jama.
That is a fair point. Hinkie or Morey interest me far more than Kahn, Pfund, or Lindsey did. I am not trying to argue that Simmons must be the choice, just really that Simmons as a candidate shouldn’t be immediately dismissed as tomfoolery. By continuing to hire in the same manner that the rest of the league does through former players or assistant GM’s, we are playing the 80% failure odds. With Simmons or someone from outside the traditional route, the odds are unpredictable, but it sure would be fun to talk about it, and additionally read about it.
If the Wolves want to hire a National Columnist who knows a thing or two about the NBA they should hire John Hollinger. It might not make them all the money that Simmons would bring in but he knows more about the NBA then Simmons does since that is all he covers.
Simmons covers all sports even though basketball seems to be his favorite.
Crentist
I completely understand where you are coming from with the Simmons take. This franchise needs to take a 180% turn and move away from the current system they are using. I just think there are much better options then Simmons although I agree it would make things really interesting around here.
It’s not so much that I am anti-Simmons as much as I am pro-Hinkie. Hinkie is the out of the box GM that this teams fans should be looking at.
If the goal is to get the best guy, then find the most knowledgable one and woo them. Given the precarious status of the journalism industry, I’m sure a job that pays at least in six figures would hold some attraction. And, the idea behind the job is to build the best team, not to sell books. If the Wolves are worried about selling jerseys, the most sustainable way to do that is to win.
Sean - I was a season ticket holder for 3 years starting in 03-04…you know whats worse than a crappy product on the court ? Sitting in a half empty stadium my last year. Simmons would probably (and only temporarily) generate buzz and interest and get butts in the seats.
There is a soccer team in England that was purchased by a community fund. People from all around the world bought shares for a set price to raise money to fund the purchase and make hires. Part of the rights for each shareholder is a vote on personnel decisions and even the lineup. The hired managers and the like offer up suggestions, it hits the web, there is a window for a vote, and then the decision is made.
So, we buy the team, hire Simmons to be the Web PR/GM guy, and we run ourselves an organization. Hey, it can’t be any more embarrassing than the Wolves current set up. Mostly, it’d be interesting.
Swan -
I agree that Simmons isn’t going to turn around attendance, he may spark interest, but winning has to occur. I still remember the atmospher in the Target Center during the Western Conference finals and that’s what we all want to get back to. No matter who we hire isn’t going to get Craig Smith to grow 4 inches taller, get Al’s knee to heal, or suddenly turn around this roster. This is an important draft, and more than a capologist or an attorney familiar with the collective bargaining agreement, we need somebody to draft a safe bet at #6, a Granger at #18, and a Howard at #28. I know, I know, expectations shouldn’t be that high, but this is a huge draft for this franchise.
Swan and Centrist,
Don’t be slaves to stats. You can find whatever you want with them.
For example, Mayo’s 3 pt % was better than Roy, Nowitzki, CP3, Joe Johnson, Rip Hamilton, etc.
While there are plenty of shooters to be had, there are not a lot of all stars to be had. And Mayo may yet be one. You just don’t know. But I think he will.
As for rebounders? Do you really think it’s that hard to find a guy to get boards and play average d? You need me to get stats for you? Give me a brake.
Also, In hindsight, it looks like Russell Westbrook is the guy we’re really going to regret passing on.
My buddies and I always say “this is the biggest draft” every year, especially after the whole Joe Smith debacle…to stock talent alongside Garnett, to rebuild, to rebuild, to rebuild…
Granted we got to give some of these guys time…but, why don’t we ever land the rookie that puts a jolt in our franchise like Deron Williams…even if they aren’t #1 or #2 picks.
Rodman:
See my points above, I credited Mayo for being a good perimiter shooter. If you think he is suddenly going to become more athletic and be able to take the ball to the hope, or be able to shoot more than fadeaway jumpers when D’d up, that’s fine, I just disagree.
If you think a 19 year old that just put together the season love had and only see potential for rebounding and average D, you must not be a fan of the league. Most of the young big guys I see take a few years to adjust to the post game in the NBA when they don’t have a superior physical advantage as they do in High School or College. Love is already drawing fouls at a high rate and his needing to adapt his offensive post moves to shoot over taller defenders seems like a safer bet that OJ developing athletic ability to drive to the basket.
I shared season tickets with members of my family for a decade. I won’t be back until Glen Taylor gives me a reason to believe that he knows what he is doing.
And I don’t honestly believe that hiring Bill Simmons is going to push the needle on ticket sales. Taylor is practically giving them away now, and people still aren’t buying. The W-L ratio is what needs to change to get people to buy tickets.
Centrist,
I hope you’re right. But it doesn’t really change one cruel fact. Big Al and Love can’t play side beside because they are both soft on D.
Our crack staff decided to load up on undersized, average defensively power forwards.
Rodman - If you think I am basing it solely on stats you’re mistaken. Watching Mayo, and yes I just said watching aka nothing to do with stats, two things pop out…
He can’t beat anybody off the dribble
He fades or leans backwards on 90% of his shots.
Love plays average D now…so if he gets quicker in small areas he’ll improve his D.
And YES I think its harder to find rebounders than jackers (jacker is not a negative term…its just people who put up high volumes of jump shots compared to off the dribble penetration)
Third:
Rip shoots primarily midrange jump shots off screens…doesn’t shoot lots of 3’s.
Roy, Nowitzki and CP3 can put the ball on the floor and beat people off the dribble and get to the line.
Big differences dood.
And yah, Westbrook is a stud…#2 for rookies in my eyes this year.
Mike Miller might be the worst SF defender west of Wally Szerbiak. Foye is an oversized point trying to defend the 2, and Telfair is 5′11″. Until we get a group of people on the perimiter who can even approach Love’s “average D” I think it’s unfair to blame our bigs for Team Defense. Esepcially when since February, this team got killed defensively by 1-3’s and not in the post. Look it up, 90% of our losses we were outscored in the perimiter, not in the post.
I know our perimeter defense is shabby at best…but how are you comparing getting outscored on the perimeter. Our perimeter people suck on both ends of the floor (not just defense).
Sean…
I think it’s fair to blame all aspects of this team’s defense… it is plain offensive.
Waiting this long, taking this long on a GM decision is showing more and more to me why Glen Failure needs to go back to Mankato and continue to make billions off of slave labor… I mean college kids.
When is the lottery again?
May 19
Wolves should hire Avery Johnson as head coach regardless of who the GM is. I’d be ok with Jeff Van Gundy too. Pretty much anybody other than McHale.
And give up on the Bill Simmons talk. Their is no way that he will ever be a GM of any team. Maybe if he had some sort of NBA experience before he became a writer, but he doesn’t and he won’t be a GM.
Expression
Why aren’t you using your BC moniker anymore. Were too many people catching on to your tired old rants?
Swan, To me, jacker is someone who shoots and does little else…ala McCants. Mayo played solid d, got rebounds, etc. He played an all round game. That was my only objection to your assessment of him.
Centrist, I certainly remember a lot of uncontested lay ups this season, but your point is certainly valid.
Nonetheless, come playoff time, interior D is very important. We need some defensive minded big men.
Rodman - Rebounds ? Really…again, stats show he isn’t anything special in that regards. D is ok.
Twinsfan - If I win the lottery, I’m buying a majority stake in a team and he will be hired !
Pass on JVG and Avery.
I would love if Simmons was hired and did a running diary of the war room on draft night…
Could you imagine listening to a season’s worth of interviews with Avery’s squeaky voice, basketball issues aside, that alone is enough for me to pass.
Swan-
Haha good luck with the lottery!
Jama,
no I just chose not to use my name. That wasn’t a moniker…
And if you’re tired of my comments that’s fine… I’ve not changed my opinion. Just the name, and if you’d prefer to call me BC, or Brad even I’m fine with that, but my opinion is more important to me than my name.
I wouldn’t mind Avery, i think he’d stay for a few years and relish building a team from the ground up, teaching. If he could get Dallas to play D, something tells me he’d improve our defense.
I see no problem w/GT taking his time w/this GM hire. Let him interview every assistant, exGM, etc he wants to. Hell let him interview every single one of them. I see that as a smart move.
Mike - first of all, I tip my hat to you for taking the time to list all of those moves. I honestly thought you wouldn’t do it. And, even more kudos for your objective analysis of all the trades.
Now a few points from me:
*Foye-Roy Swap - Definitely a colossal bust. But after only two months on the job, there’s no way Hoiberg had any say in this deal.
*Bobby Jones to Philly for Cash and a future 2nd-rounder - To get anything (even cash) for Bobby Jones should be considered a Grade A. A very minimal-impact deal, but well executed on a small scale. But, again, after two months on the job, I don’t think you can give Hoiberg much credit for this either.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Now to the deals that I belive Hoiberg had a big impact on:
*Garnett Deal - I like your Grade of B. But once The Wolves determined they had to move Garnett, I think it was pretty impressive that they got a young star like Al Jefferson in return.
*Hassell-Buckner Trade - for contract purposes, this was a coup for The Timberwolves. I assume Trenton Hassell will exercise his $4.35M Player Option, so this trade got a bad contract off the books that would have STILL been a burden if The Wolves didn’t pull this deal off. But, yeah, I like the B+ grade.
*Blount/Davis to Miami Trade - I can’t possibly see how you wouldn’t give this trade an immediate Grade A. This trade is two years old and Mark Blount is STILL on the Miami payroll next year for $8M. What genius to get that long-term deal out of town in exchange for short-term deals that were all off the books last year! The fact that we ALSO got this year’s draft is gravy. Even if The No. 18 overall pick turns out to be a bust, this trade is a Grade A. Add to that the fact that we might be able to come up with a player like Eric Maynor or BJ Mullens and this is one of the better trades in Wolves history.
*Snyder for Gerald Green swap - To net some cash and a future 2nd-rounder is a great deal, albeit a deal of small overall magnitude. Either way this deal won’t impact us on the court, but to get cash and a future 2nd-rounder is an amazing return for Gerald Green. Even though it’s a minor deal, I give this a B+.
*Love/Mayo Swap - I like the B+ grade, though I could also give them an A because I don’t think Mayo will ever “haunt” us. The simple reason is because he’s an undersized 2-guard who will always be limited because he’s just not explosive. He has a terrible first step that NBA defenders will never have to worry about. Hence, as Swan has stated, he’ll largely be a jacker. He’ll be a good player in the league for 12-15 years, no doubt. But he’s not nearly as special as his life-long hype has always suggested. To get rid of Jaric (STILL has two more years at an average of $7.3M per!) and the better long-term player (Love) is nothing short of brilliant.
*I also agree that this is a B+… we did a very nice job of finding a team that was desperate financially and leveraging that situation. The 76ers desperately wanted cap space to sign Elton Brand and we basically got a 1st-rounder for nothing because the conditional 2nd-rounder only goes to Philly if The Wolves finish with a Top-5 record in The NBA next year. The Utah pick that we acquired in this trade in only Top-15 protected next year, so the odds are high that we’ll have a No. 15-20 pick from this. If Carney sticks around as a low-salary 10th-12th man, then that’s gravy.
I believe you absolutely have to take the Foye/Roy trade and the Bobby Jones trade off of Hoiberg’s shoulders. Beyond those two trades, your assessment of all Timberwolves trades with Hoiberg is a solid B (3.064 “GPA”). My grades were only slighly higher at B+/A- (3.498 “GPA”).
You seem to be against Hoiberg have a major role in player personell, but your assessment of all the moves he would have been a part of was pretty positive.
Again, nice job in digging up all the history on this one.
Jama always gets his panties in a bunch over something. Don’t worry about it BC, it will all pass.
And to the other Arenal above me, what you can’t come up with your own name? You DORK!!!!
Why hasn’t the Timberwolves looked a lil more closer at “Trader Bob”, Bob Whitsitt. He is a guy that can do it all. Scout players, crunch numbers, help bring in a healthy bottom line. The dude is schrewd. I loved him when he was here in Portland. Think Taylor ought to look at him.
Patrick Patterson is returning to Kentucky… this shouldn’t affect The Timberwolves first two picks because I believe that Patterson will go after The Wolves No. 18 pick.
But he would have gone before the No. 28 pick… so this means we’ll get a lesser player with the No. 28 pick.
What a weak, weak draft this will be!
I sure hope we can somehow get Maynor or Mullens at No. 18… either of those guys will help diversify our roster and give us an athletic, young prospect to develop for a need position. I’d be thrilled with Jrue Holiday, but I seriously doubt that he’ll be available at No. 18 like a lot of the mock drafts are currently saying. I think at the end of the day, he’ll be a Top-10 pick.
The more I read about Tom Penn, the better I would like that choice. Jerry’s link about is definitely worth reading through, for one example.
The guy reads like a sort of primer on how to get all the stuff the Wolves have screwed up lately right. The foresight and basic competence of his cap moves, his being able to see past expiring deals and flexibility to the talent that lets the team acquire…. There’s even a bit about trades and why they tend to wait a little bit that suggests he’d have managed last year’s second round better.
That reads like a wish list of qualities you’d want in a VP of Basketball Operations, starting with the openness with a team blog site. (The Blazers have learned their lessons after a period where the franchise turned defensive and stonewalled its fans. Hello, Glen Taylor?) Penn doesn’t look like a talent guy himself — none of the candidates have — but this is very solid hire we’re talking about here. If he gets hired and comes in shooting straight about things like McHale as coach at his press conference, I will do a cartwheel. Really.
Bob Whitsett, incidentally, was the guy who assembled the “Jailblazers” period that Portland has just emerged from. He had a limitless pool of money from his ownership, he made deal after deal to take on troubled talent, and the franchise just about died despite having one of the largest salary loads in the league. Admittedly, he did recognize talent. His foresight ranks up there with McHale’s, however, in terms of the arc of a team over time. (I wouldn’t personally rank either of them as *abysmally* horrible in that way, actually — Glen being a big part of what’s been wrong with the team, and McHale having manifestly been in the wrong role. Mike Dunleavy is worse in my book. Or “Trader” Jack McCloskey, circa Wolves’ tenure.)
One thing I like about possibly bringing in Tom Penn is that he’s got a track record of picking up additional 1st-round picks. Like it or not, there is an element about the NBA draft that is a crap-shoot. So the more picks you have, the better your odds to pick up a diamond in the rough or a sleeper-star.
Kestrel - Wow. I just read that Q&A with Tom Penn and he sounds pretty sharp, knows how to work the cap and he’s been around some pretty good basketball people - Kevin Pritchard and Jerry West on the front office side; Nate McMillan, Hubie Brown and Chuck Daly on the hoops side.
I’d love a front office headed by Penn and Hoiberg.
We would still clearly have questions about Penn’s role and how that fit with the organization. Glen’s “country club” determination to hang onto his existing people would have to be addressed, if only indirectly, at a press conference. Just how clearly would Penn or any other candidate be given the keys? It’s not realistic to expect massive change within the next month with *any* candidate, but we should have a hint of where he’s going and how much leeway he gets.
Among the options, though, I am easily liking this one best. Kahn has his interesting qualities, I wouldn’t be doggedly averse to hiring him in *some* capacity, but as the head man he seems like more than a little bit of a shady operator. Hoiberg may be our anointed young exec, but he’s proven next to nothing. Stack actually has more experience in almost any area you care to mention than Fred. Lindsey’s background we were all on the fence about until Kahn came up; it’s not like there are a bunch of home runs there with Houston or San Antonio on his watch. Lance Blanks doesn’t appear to be on the list; he’s the one option that’s more of a talent scout than a high-level administrator as of now. (Bill Simmons I like right where he is, not that he’s a real possibility. He’s already probably prodded the team into realizing how out-of-touch it is with its fan base. Job done, Mr. Simmons.)
I’m on board with this one.
I’m hoping Randy Pfund is still under consideration, because personally I still think he’s the best option.
But certainly, if Penn is the guy that was interviewed, there’s a lot to like there. He’s got an impressive list of mentors and an impressive track record of deals, especially in Portland. Had a hand in acquiring Aldridge, had a hand in acquiring Roy, in acquiring Fernandez. The Blazer fans I’ve talked to actually credit him more than Pritchard in the trade that Zach Randolph away, which was the move that really got the Blazers going, and obviously the Blazers have all kinds of young talent and resources now. So if Taylor really wants to keep Hoiberg, and I’m ok with that, then hiring Penn is a very sound way to go.
Foo,
Just to comment on an older post about the teams recent moves. I like your assessments. Solid moves. But you overlooked on thing… weak draft choices.
We took our medicine with the Mayo/Love trade, but years from now, we will be wishing we had Russell Westbrook or even Brook Lopez. My point isn’t to knock Love, but to say taking the 3rd selection in the draft and ending up with an excellent role player is weak to me. Though I am a fan.
Same goes for last year. Corey Brewer is again a solid role player… not what you want out of a 7th pick (or was it 6th?)
Anyway, I hope our draft is better this year. We need to shoot for stars if you know what I mean.
I like the sound of Penn too.
Swan,
It took me a day to digest it, but I have to ask you this… If it’s so easy to get shooting guards in the league, why is it that we never have them? Spree is the only good one the Wolves have ever had. Am I forgetting something?
So I will have to respectfully disagree with your assessment that those players are easy to come by.
It’s been a train wreck in that position. That and center. McHale couldn’t spot a good center if he tried.
All he can pick is power forward.
Rodman - I really like Westbrook and Lopez, but your comment absolutely wreaks of hindsight, smarty-pantsism.
It’s so easy to go back on any draft a year later and said a team should of done this or should have done that. NOBODY was second-guessing The Wolves decision to pass up Westbrook or Lopez on draft night.
Seattle/OKC had a nice read on Westbrook and they deserve a ton of props for that. But not picking him wasn’t a bad move for The Wolves. Same with Brook Lopez. I like his game and he’s a true center. But he fell to 10th overall… so there was clearly consensus on this guy on draft-day.
And I’ll give you credit for saying that you like Love, but calling him a role-player is a gross innaccuracy. He’ll probably be a 15-12 guy as a second-year player once he gets the 30-35 minutes per game he deserves. A double-double machine is far more than a role player. He had 30 double-doubles this year while averaging only 25 minutes per game! Imagine what he’ll do with a year of experience under his belt and with 30-35 minutes per game.
I don’t like Love at all. He’s a one dimensional, one way player putting up empty numbers on a historically bad team. He’s vastly overrated by a fanbase looking for anything positive to hold onto.
I find it hard to watch the team with him on the floor. It would be a huge positive for me if whoever comes in cleans house and trades him while his value is at its peak.
Yes I’m using hindsight… What were you using when you evaluated all the trades? I’m guessing hindsight. That’s all we’ve got. My point is, this year, we need someone running the draft who can draft.
A lot of people were high on Westbrook, he wasn’t a secret. Same with Lopez.
As an aside, my view on draft is that when you get the high picks, sometimes conventional wisdom overtakes making the best pick…e.g. Last year it was Rose, Beasley, Mayo. Those later picks, you can get more creative. Like ours this year.
All I say about Love, is to look at David Lee with the Knicks. The guy who led the NBA in double-doubles this year. He’s a great rebounder and finishes well around the basket. But he’s a weak defender on a team without a true center (sound familiar?). Now he’s a RFA and the Knicks will be faced with a decision… look at those numbers, he’s worth $10 million a year, right? He’s a star right? He led the NBA in double-doubles. Well not so fast… he’s on a bad team, and his points didn’t translate to wins. The fact is, he’s not a superstar, but a great, gritty player who’s nice to have on your team. But not at $10 million per! So really I think you will see them try and sign and trade, and find other guys to get the boards.
Finally, my problem with Love is that he and Al play the same position and both could use a shot-blocker next to them. So for the Wolves to become great, they need a real center.
Actually, the vast majority of moves that The Wolves made in the past two years were considered excellent moves when they were made and continue to be considered excellent moves. That’s not hindsight…
Hindsight is when you act like you’re smarter than the obvious consensus of the time when the personnel decisions were made. Last year’s draft, since that’s what we’re talking about, is the prime example. There was no debate that the top-3 players in last year’s draft were Rose, Beasley and Mayo. We picked third and took the third-best player. To act like we should have passed on Mayo and taken Westbrook or Lopez is folly.
The only way the Love trade is excellent is if Mike Miller didn’t fall on his face like he did. Even then I’d put it in the passable category as I don’t like Love at all. There was some salary cap relief at least, but taking on Cardinal (another bad player I can’t stand) lessens that some.
The moves the past few years have generally been better, but that’s setting the bar pretty low based on past performance.
Also if the team wasn’t sold on Mayo but felt he was the best asset available there they could have spun him off in part of a package for a better return than Love and the ghost of Mike Miller, which may be Rodman’s point to an extent.
In theory I’m fine with the idea of trading Mayo, in practice I do not like the return both in terms of talent and in terms of what it means for the course of the franchise (i.e. continuing to build around tweeners without a true position).
I hate continuing to argue the same points, but Al Jefferson scores in the low post, is not a good passer or ball handler, he is most effective with his back to the basket. Why do people continue to insist that Al Jefferson is a Power Forward. If Al Jefferson average 2 blocks a game, everybody would be fine calling him a center. I agree that Al has extreme defincies on Defense right now, but any traditional Center we get is going to be liability on offense becuase 2 people can’t occupy the low post like Al does.
Al is your center, Love is your power forward. No matter what basketball dreams you had of having a traditional 7′0″ center that can block shots, it’s not going to happen. There is a 0% chance the team will draft Thabeet, because contrary to some of the fans, the team views Al as a Center.
Finally, with the David Lee comparisons to Love, although their game is similar, Kevin Love is far more skilled than David Lee.
David Lee during his second year when he was 23, turned 24 midway through the season had the following splits.
Min: 29.8
Pts: 10.8
Reb: 10.4
Blk: 0.4
Stl: 0.8
Kevin Love as a 20 year old rookie averaged the following.
Min: 25.3
Pts: 11.1
Reb: 9.1
Blk: 0.62
Stl: 0.43
Kevin Love in his first year in the association who was three years younger than David Lee during his second season had a far superior year. Love’s ceiling is far higher than Lee.
We’re just now talking about who’s going to be in charge of the organization. You’re guaranteeing that there’s 0% chance of drafting a certain player because “the team” thinks they’ve got that spot filled.
Who is this “the team” of whom you speak? What consensus is safe from any possible front office change?
“Love’s ceiling is far higher than Lee.”
Love’s ceiling is limited by his conditioning and lack of athleticism. He is all he’ll ever be, and in fact is probably more than he’ll be since as his role grows they won’t be able to pick his spots to give him the most favorable matchup possible.
Keep in mind projecting future performance isn’t as easy as taking (Stat/Minutes) * Perspective Minutes. If you play Love more minutes he’s going to wear down since his conditioning is so poor. It will not only affect his performance within each game, but from game to game.
And, shockingly, his defense will probably get worse as he continues to wear down from having to defend players bigger, stronger and in better shape then him (basically everyone in the NBA at the 4/5).
“Who is this “the team” of whom you speak? What consensus is safe from any possible front office change?”
I think we need to accept there is no front office change coming. We’re just seeing a change in accounting basically. Hoiberg and Stack are still going to be the driving forces (along with Taylor) in personnel, which likely means Al will stay as a center and he’s probably right they won’t draft Thabeet.
They’ll draft another raw combo guard!
I agree with Kestral. The Love/Jefferson front court duo you’re referring is really Kevin McHale’s outdated, 1980s version of what it takes to be a big man in the NBA.
He wouldn’t know athleticism if it bit him in the butt.
As for Lee and Love, I concur that Love may have a higher ceiling, but not by much. Love will always get schooled by the studs of the league.
I’m with you Gendo. I’m not here to rip guys like Love and Brewer, but just to remind people we haven’t nailed a draft pick since KG.
You’d think the law of averages would be on our side.
That’s why I want to keep all three picks this year. One is bound to work out.
“If you play Love more minutes he’s going to wear down since his conditioning is so poor. It will not only affect his performance within each game, but from game to game.
And, shockingly, his defense will probably get worse as he continues to wear down from having to defend players bigger, stronger and in better shape then him (basically everyone in the NBA at the 4/5).”
I shouldn’t even be responding to this rant, since it seems you are just trying to sucker me in, but c’mon, he went from playing 30 min in 30 games in college to playing 25 a game for 70 games in the pros. He did this and continued to improve each month while playing more minutes towards the end of the season. Maybe you should go back to watching Hockey, it’s clear you don’t know much about basketball.
Why the animosity?
I’d go into some of the more advanced metrics to prove my point but every time I do that I get called a nerd for 20 posts.
I realize you guys want to look for something positive in this mess, but Love isn’t a franchise cornerstone or anything. At best he’s a useful piece that has to be used strategically to mask his shortcomings.
Gendo - I’m sure you’re a basketball wizard and it must be criminal how much I’m woefully underrating your pure genius, but I’d rather go with folks like:
1. Bill Simmons: Who said in a KFAN interview yesterday that Kevin Love is one of the three players The Timberwolves could build around in the necessary “Big 3″ that NBA Championship teams normally need. He said Al and Love can be 2 of a team’s Big 3, but that The Wolves need a star on the perimeter.
2. David Thorpe of ESPN who rated Kevin Love the 3rd-best rookie at the end of the season with Beasley 5th, Westbrook 7th and Mayo 8th.
I’ll also ask if you’re the guy who lives abroad and doesn’t ever watch the games (somebody on this board is… forgot who). Because if you actually take the time to watch Love play, he’s got EXCELLENT footwork and small-space quickness. He does a great job of moving his feet and getting into position defensively. No, he won’t win any footraces and, no, he doesn’t jump out of the gym. But to say he’s unathletic clearly paints you as the unreliable narrator in this drama.
That would be an argument from authority, Foo which is a logical fallacy.
I don’t live out of the country. I live out of state now but I buy NBA League Pass every year (though it’s getting increasingly hard to justify the expense).
I’m not sure why you guys take criticism of Love so personally. I don’t like him or his game, big deal. It’s not like my opinion matters one whit in the grand scheme of things.
Ahh, Gendo… I see you’ve taken a Philosophy class in your life. Congratulations. Perhaps you could call me out with the fallacy of ignorance if I can’t come up with any additional basketball authorities who disagree with your comically-simplistic views of Kevin Love.
I’m not sure if folks take anything that anybody says on this blog personally… it’s not just you, so don’t give yourself a big head. It’s just a forum to debate such issues. But you’re just so obviously wrong on this. You clearly don’t watch enough of Love if you’re going to paint him with such a broad brush as unathletic. If your only definition of “athletic” is jumping high and running fast, then how could I possibly convince you to see beyond that?
I don’t think it has anything to do with me personally, there’s just a bit of a bunker mentality around here.
I kind of get that with how arbitrarily negative some Minnesota fans are. The Vikings boards are basically unreadable despite the team being pretty damn good.
Anybody have an opinion on Alade Aminu as a 2nd-round draft prospect?
I’ve got a really good feeling about this guy, even though he plays the only position (PF) that we don’t need. I think in the 2nd-round, you take the best-player available because nobody is going to play major minutes from that point in the draft anyway.
He’s athletic, long and has a defensive presense to him in the paint. I think he could be the next Craig Smith/Paul Millsaps 2nd-round PF who could have a long, productive NBA career, though never a star. He could be a nice option at reserve PF if The Wolves decide to let Craig Smith walk when his contract expires after next season.
Actually, he’s hired Bill Duffy as his agent. Therefore, I am now going on the record predicting that The Wolves WILL draft him with the 47th pick.
Kestrel:
I am guaranteeing we won’t draft thabeet because Thabeet is not a can’t miss center prospect like Shaq, Alonzo Morning, Dwight Howard, or even Oden. All of those players showed a lot more skills offensively or athleticism defensively. This team has glaring holes on the perimiter at any position 1-3. For a team with bad attendance and a diminishing fan base, do you really feel their is ANY chance we will draft another big and continue to roll the dice with Foye, Telfair, Brewer and Miller and 1-3. You may believe otherwise, and to be fair, I should be belittling other’s opinions, it’s just my opinion that drafting Thabeet is not going to happen unless he is available at #18. It doesn’t make sense basketball wise, it doesn’t make sense financially, it doesn’t make sense under any theory unless you believe that the Wolves as currently assembled are only a one-dimensional shot blocking center away from the playoffs.
Illustrating my point further, what first year GM or Hoiberg if he stays is going to want the first draft pick they are responsible for with the Franchise to be a giant gamble like Thabeet. Thabeet is slow on his feet, slow to react, has no refined offensive skills, and when physical players matched up with him in college like Suton and Blair, he was completely overwhelmed. If I am just getting comfortable in my chair as a GM you don’t risk your legacy and job security on a project like this with a top 6 pick.
If Thabeet is available at No. 5, I’d be shocked.
The only spot where we’d possibly pick Thabeet is at No. 3 if we moved into that spot.
IMHO, I thought that Thabeet looked very athletic running up and down the court on fast breaks, and getting back on defense.
I think that his main problems are a lack of offensive ability, and keeping his head in the game.
I personally would love to see him here as a the shot blocker/rebounder/defensive post player that the team is lacking.
I have not read any scouting reports on the guy, and am obviously no expert, but that is what I have noticed from watching a few of his games.
Look, to all the Thabeet people and anybody else, I didn’t mean to state so affirmatively my opinions. The NBA draft is just such a huge event and really the only hope for improvement when you’re a lottery team unless you already have a ton of young talent to maneuver in trades. Since Al went down with a knee injury, projecting which player the Wolves may draft has really been the only ray of hope in this fan’s eyes in regards to improvement next year and eventually returning to the playoffs. I feel strongly about Thabeet being the worst possible pick possible, but what is clear to me, definitely is not a consensus among fans. I apologize.
I sure would luv to see the wolves draft Thabeet, but I’m araid he’ll be gone by the 5th pick…I sure hope they don’t pick Harden.
There’s no need to apologize for your opinion. Everyone has got one, and this is a great place to let it be heard.
Sorry if I sounded rude or sarcastic in stating mine.
Why not Harden, sportsjunkie? I hope it’s not because he didn’t have a great tournament. That shouldn’t overshadow his entire body of work.
Gendo - I’m with you on the James Harden take. He has proven repeatedly that he’s one of the most polished offensive players available in the draft.
Two sub-par games in The NCAA Tourney shouldn’t wipe away the rest of his body of work.
I watched him play against Temple and Syracuse and it was clear that both teams sold out to stop him and dare the rest of the ASU players to beat them. Nobody in the NBA can afford putting that much of a defensive focus on Harden. And if he winds up in Minnesota, we have two pretty good post players to make opponents pay if they over-defend Harden.
Worst-case draft scenario is that The Wolves pick No. 8. Even if Jordan Hill is still available, I see no way that The Wolves pick him. So even if the lottery sticks us at No. 8, we’ll still wind up with a very good player. I believe there’s a substantial drop-off in talent after these eight players:
1. B.Griffin
2. R.Rubio
3. H.Thabeet
4. J.Harden
5. T.Evans
6. D.DeRozen
7. B.Jennings
8. J.Holiday
So, even if The Wolves fall all the way down to No. 8, I think we’re definitely going to get a backcourt player who will be able to make a major contribution.
Foo:
I agree on your thoughts on Harden. His play in the tournament shouldn’t be overshadowed by his total body of work. I saw ASU play in person against UW and it was clear that teams were forcing Lassiter and Pendergraff to beat them. The thing I liked most about Harden throughout Pac 10 play was that teams were successful gearing their entire defense towards Harden and it seemed like he was having a quiet game, only to take over at Crunch time and score ASU’s final 10-15 points and grind out a win. They played a ton of low scoring games. He took over at the end of games and made shots and made plays.
My list is a little different than yours, but I agree with the 8 players you have with Stephen Curry being the #9.
1. Rubio
2. Griffin
3. DeRozan
4. Harden
5. Evans
6. Thabeet
7. Holliday
8. Jennings
9. Curry
I haven’t seen Harden play that much other than the tourney. I figure to be such a high rated player his team should have done a lot better than what there record was. His stats were elevated because he’s the main guy on the team.
Chad Ford stated that Harden doesn’t have much upside left to his game and isn’t going to get much better.
Harden’s a 6′4″ shooting guard with so so athletic ability. I would rather the team take a chance and get an elite type talent. I had these nine players a head of him…
1. Hasheem Thabeet
2. Ricky Rubio
3. Blake Griffin
4. Jordan Hill
5. Tyreke Evans
6. Jrue Holiday
7. DeMar DeRozan
8. Stephen Curry
9. BJ Mullens
10.James Harden
I think a good comparison for Harden is Eric Gordon. Similar build, same height, both play shooting guard, I think Harden is a better facilitator than Gordon was though.
In regards to team success, when I describe teams forcing Lassiter and Pendergraff to beat them, it was because ASU’s roster was extremely shallow. I liked those 3 players, but 4-10 they were worse than almost any other team in the Pac 10. I think as the season wore on and every team played them the same way, i.e. put two guys on Harden, double Pendergraff on the post, rotate on Lassiter and the team was easily beatable.
The more and more I think about it, a better passing Eric Gordon is the best comparison out there. Yeah, in a stronger draft he wouldn’t be a top 5 pick, but I also think he’s a less of risk than others on the board and is probably a double digit wing scorer.
sportsjunkie - You said, Harden’s “stats were elevated because he’s the main guy on the team.”
Uhh… how many of the top-tier draft prospects weren’t the main guys on their team? I’d be more concerned if Harden was the main guy on his team and he didn’t manage to produce.
Besides, if anybody was singularly enamored with statistics, Stephen Curry would be a Top-5 prospect. But a player’s college stats are only a small portion in determining whether a player will be successful at the pro level.
Centrist Sean - I’m digging your Eric Gordon comparison. A “better passing Eric Gordon.”
I’m waffling right now whether Tyreke Evans or James Harden will be the better NBA player. They absolutely have complementary skills:
*Evans dominates the ball; Harden moves the ball.
*Evans has great size; Harden has so-so size.
*Evans has great athleticism; Harden has so-so athleticism.
*Evans is a poor shooter; Harden is a good shooter.
Other general comparisons, according to their profiles on draftexpress.com:
*Harden gets to the free-throw line more, but both do this well.
*Evans is a better ball-handler, but both are good for SGs.
*Evans is more athletic than Harden.
*Harden understands the game better, has a higher basketball IQ.
*Harden is a better shooter.
*Both have great ability to get to the basket.
*Both can beat a 1v1 defender - Harden with craftiness, Evans with explosiveness.
Still waffling - they’d both be nice additions. At this point, I’d still go with Harden because he seems more like a dual-threat (perimeter and penetration), whereas Evans seems to be more predictable (not a threat on the perimeter).
I’d rather have Evans. I don’t think ball dominant is an accurate way to describe him because he passes well and willingly. He was Memphis’ point guard after all. He needs the ball to be effective, but that’s not the same as ball dominant.
Also, I’ve mentioned it before, but Harden is uncompetitive. He doesn’t often look like he cares, and that’s been something on him his entire college career. If we’re going to be spending a top pick on a guy, it should be on someone who takes over when the game is on the line. Someone who aspires to be great, and that’s definitely not Harden.
I’ve spent a lot of time watching Harden here in Tempe and that’s really not the way I’d describe him at all.
You wouldn’t describe him as uncompetitive?
Not at all, no. He had a flat tournament but that was not representative of the way he normally plays. I think it’d be a shame to let two bad games color the totality of his college career.
I’ve also never considered him to be uncompetitive… I actually think that’s way off. But I wouldn’t have a problem with Evans, either.
This years draft is going to take some luck and creativity. You just know that most people’s draft boards are going to look ridiculous a few years from now with so many projects high on the board.
I wouldn’t be surprised if players like DeRozan, Holiday, Curry or Maynor (just a guess) turn out to be the best of the class.
I’m not that up to speed on all the players but Evans’ jump shot looks a little suspect. A lot of wrist hinge (ala Kevin Love).
You know whoever gets Stephen Curry is going to be loving him. He may be skinny but that jump shot is going to be killing teams for years.
This is a year where I’m not going to comment if we take someone who is projected much lower. It’s just such a tough mix to choose from.
Rodman - hoopshype.com has a report today that says The Knicks have promised Curry that they will pick him if he’s available at No. 8.
I like Curry as well and think he’ll have a nice career as a complementary scorer. But two things about him - he is a tweener and he has average athleticism. Those are two things I believe we cannot afford. We need a player with a true position who can excel in that position. And I also believe we need somebody with at least above-average athleticism.
I agree Foo. I would like to see the Wolves go for size and athleticism for a change. With strong defense. Someone like DeRozan.
That’s why I’m not totally sold on Harden on paper (I haven’t seen him play much so take it with a grain a salt).
And I tend to prefer players with great shots already. That’s why Rubio and Evans make me pause a bit.
All the players have some weaknesses.
Actually I don’t even know if DeRozan is good on D.
I’ve got to say I like what I’ve read about Jrue Holiday.
As far as perimeter prospects out there not named Ricky Rubio, it seems like Harden is the safest/most NBA-ready prospect. He’s got a nice inside-outside game and appears like a lock to be a very productive NBA player at worst - great intangibles, moves the ball very well, 2-guard size, ability to get the rim/FT line, great shooter, high basketball IQ, good defender.
I don’t necessarily believe that a perimeter prospect MUST be a great perimeter shooter, but Evans’ shooting range concerns me.
Just hope the Wolves can come up with two quality players. Saw one mock that had them taking DeRozan and Ty Lawson. I’d be very happy with that.
Here’s a great read today from nbadraft.net:
http://www.nbadraft.net/node/5605
It includes items on Holiday staying in the draft, Jonny Flynn likely to Phoenix at No. 14, Curry likely to NYK at No. 8. There’s also a nice discussion of the three positions with depth in the draft - PG, SF and PF.
Foo,
Harden does sound like a solid, can’t miss kind of pick. But I’m not getting superstar out of him. And we need a superstar. So, call me crazy, but I want to roll the dice on one of these more raw players with higher ceilings.
I really hope Holiday stays in the draft - the three players I have my eyes on at No. 18 are Eric Maynor, Jrue Holiday and BJ Mullens.
Mullens seems like the most likely player to be available at No. 18. A lot of the mocks have Holiday and Maynor going between 12-20, so there’s a good chance they’ll be available as well… unless more folks start pulling out of the draft to return to college.
It would be sweet if one of those players drops to us.
Anyone see Aaron Brooks yesterday? The guys goes undrafted out of Oregon, and was just tearing the Lakers to shreds.
Why can’t we ever get one of those guys!
Brooks was a late 1st round pick
Thanks Wade. My bad, I was looking at a Fantasy listing of him as “undrafted.”
Now it just goes on my list of a dozen or so players I’d take over Corey Brewer.
For those that say Evans is ball dominant, you need to realize what type of offense he was playing in at Memphis. The dribble drive motion offense consists of dribbling the ball a lot, especially if you are one of the only players on your team that is a very good ball handler. As it was pointed out Evans is a good passer with good vision. Evans wasn’t playing with the type of players Derrick Rose had at Memphis. Evans was easily their best player and Calipari wanted the ball in his hands most of the time.
jama - nice take on Evans… I’m definitely on the fence between Evans and Harden. And unless we move up in the lottery, there’s a very good chance that we’ll have to choose between Evans and Harden. At minimum, one of them should be available to us. My top-five wish list is:
1. Rubio
2. Harden/Evans
3. Evans/Harden
4. DeRozen
5. Jennings.
Regarding the other offensive options at Memphis when Derrick Rose was there, I agree he had better options than Evans did. Not that Joey Dorsey was a great offensive player, but he was a strong player who could get involved offensively once he got the ball in his hands in the post. CDR was a great college scorer.
Brian/Jerry, should we interpret the latest delay as impending refusal #2 over Glen’s offer of salary/control. If we lose Penn too and fall back to option Z, argh…
Yeah… it seems every “top candidate” announcement is followed by 2-3 days of inactivity and then followed/concluded with news that they are mysteriously no longer candidates… presumably because the negotiation process went like so:
GT: You’re our top candidate.
Candidate: Thank you. This is a dream job for me.
GT: Great. You’ll have to work for minimum wage and flow seamlessly into our good-old boy club and make sure everybody currently on board stays on board.
Candidate: Later, alligator.
Not sure where I read it but the figures that supposedly tossed around about Kahn were 500K for the first year and 700K for the second year, making him the lowest paid GM in the NBA. After hearing this I’m really not suprised at all that nobody has been hired. It seems like it has been more of the same with Glenn Taylor. He can’t seem to get out of his own way.
Where are those contract numbers coming from, jama?
jama and Jake - I read those same numbers somewhere. It was in one of the mainstream, local media sources.
I’m not saying they need to overpay for a good candidate, but at least don’t be DEAD LAST in the comp you offer the leader of your front office… just go 2nd-to-last or something. Anything but dead last.
It blows my mind that we can overpay by millions for guys like Jaric, Hudson, Candy, etc. And then we are going to get that cheap with our new Pres.
Taylor should just sell the team.
Jake
From Shooters column in the PiPress:
“A little birdie says the offer the Timberwolves would make to former Indiana Pacers general manager David Kahn would make him the lowest-paid GM in the NBA at $500,000 the first year, $700,000 the second year. It’s unclear whether there would be a third year. NBA Commissioner David Stern is a big backer of Kahn, who multiple sources say is a salary cap and administrative genius but virtually devoid of personality.
A more viable prospect appears to be Portland Trail Blazers assistant GM Tom Penn.”
Eight more days until the draft lottery.
Jerry/Brian
I heard K. Love is representing the Wolves at the Lottery. Have you heard this? Will he be carrying Fred’s “lucky” teddy bear?
This stuff about Glen trying to get a GM for cheap drives me up the wall. As someone else pointed out, we spend MILLIONS in bad contracts only to attempt to go cheap on the one thing that we SHOULDNT go cheap on…
I’ve always said that we should be raiding other succesful franchises of thier talent in the front offices. If you have to pay someone alot of money to leave..then do it. You’ll easily get that money back on not signing these players to bad contracts and more people in the stands. It just makes no sense to me. I cant believe that Glen is that dumb to be honest.
kingsxman - I couldn’t agree more with you.
If you get a great mind in here to run the franchise, attendance goes up as a result of the winning that would theoretically ensue. Plus a great mind isn’t going to shell out big cash on lame basketball players.
I’m not in the business, but doesn’t this seem pretty fundamentally basic?
The days of Glen Taylor spending money on this team are over. That’s been clear since the Sprewell-Cassell situations ended poorly. Let’s face it — the “blueprint” this team is being built on sacrifices three seasons in order to save Taylor money. They weren’t trying to win last year. They weren’t trying to win this year, and they’re not trying to win next year. It’s about clearing the cap and hoping for Twins-like success in selecting, developing, and eventually selling off young talent.
Thanks, jama. Not surprising sadly.
Love himself said he was representing the team at the lottery — and appalled as I am to admit this, I saw that when someone pointed me to his twitter page.
“It blows my mind that we can overpay by millions for guys like Jaric, Hudson, Candy, etc. And then we are going to get that cheap with our new Pres.”
Exactly so. Glen wants to keep spending his money on body work rather than fixing the stupid steering mechanism, so it’s one fender bender after another.
Hopefully the contract numbers there are every bit as real as the contract offer, which seems not to have happened at all anyway.
I think it’s a little quick to jump the gun on what offers are being made to candidates other than Kahn. Kahn has been working in the D-League, hasn’t been in the NBA in a few years, with his resume he should get an offer that places him in the lowest paid GM’s. Without knowing more information, we don’t know whether Penn would get the same offer. Remember, salaries are negotiated depending on experience, current salary, etc. Kahn got a low ball offer because he is a low ball candidate.
I believe that Kahn has claimed that he didn’t receive an offer. He didn’t comment on the opening and the process, but did claim that he hadn’t received an offer. I’ll have to track that one down.
Does anyone know what the average salary for a VP of Basketball operations or a GM actually is?
I’m glad to know that Harden is more than what we see in the tournaments then. I obviously don’t see him as much as you do Gendo…the few times I’ve watched his games, I’ve been underwhelmed to say the least. But if he can consistently bring it every night, he’ll be something, because he’s by far the most skilled wing player in the draft.
Bryan
I wouldn’t say Harden is by far the most skilled, I’d say he is the most polished. There are a handfull of players who have upsides higher then Harden. But we all know what comes with potential, potential failure.
I’m still going on record as saying Evans is going to be one of the top 3 players to come out of this draft.
I think the real problem with acquiring Harden is that I think Oklahoma City takes him if he’s available. They need a 2 guard and a Center, and I just don’t see their astute front office taking a gamble on Thabeet. Lopez was a far better Center prospect last year and they went with Westrbook. They’ve been burned on athletic defensive centers with no offensive game with Petro and Senne as 1st rounders, and IMO will not gamble on Thabeet. So that says to me, that we only will get Harden if we get the #3 pick, and even then will have to choose him over Thabeet who as much as I don’t like him, clearly others feel differently.
I equate skill with polish. To me, skill is potential refined. Otherwise it’s just raw talent.
But I agree about Evans. I think he’s being vastly underrated this draft. I’m shocked at how many sites have him listed below DeRozan. Some even have him listed below Curry, and DraftNet doesn’t even have him in the lottery.
Evans looks like a sick cross between Rodney Stuckey and Jerry Stackhouse to me. There’s going to be a lot of teams regretting having passed him up in w few years.
I don’t know if anyone has got a chance to read DraftExpress articles evaluating all the draft prospects by position, but I found the article on Point Guards very interesting. Due to the variety of systems in which PG’s play and how much their teams relied on them to carry the load, normal game statistics can’t flesh out their real production.
Here is the link:
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Situational-Statistics-This-Years-Point-Guard-Crop-3209/
Here is their profile on Thabeet which only confirms to me that he is NOT a top 5 talent or maybe even a top 10 talent:
Hasheem Thabeet’s value comes from his defensive ability, but the development of his offensive game will be integral to his success in the long-term and determine how he is viewed as a player.
Thabeet is going to block shots next year, pull down some rebounds, and face an uphill battle to become a bigger offensive threat than he already is.
Before we look at the difficulties he may face, we first need to take a step back and observe how Thabeet’s role has grown over time on paper. In his first season under Jim Calhoun, he got only 1.3 possessions per game in post up situations (25% of his total offense), and almost one-third of his touches off of basket cuts. This past season, he got nearly 35.1% of his touches on the block, a dramatic improvement from his first season. After almost exclusively earning his touches on hustle plays as a freshman, Thabeet put up 1.08 PPP in 4.1 post up touches per game as a junior, ranking him first on our list in PPP and showing how significantly he improved from his sophomore year (.76 PPP). Obviously, Thabeet grew as a player during his time at Conneticut to the point that he was a viable offensive option this season, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s going to do much scoring in the NBA.
There are a number of reasons to be skeptical about Thabeet’s ability to score on the NBA level. First, he got only 11.8 possessions per-game on the offensive end this season, 5.4 of which came on catch and finish opportunities off of offensive rebounds, cuts, or otherwise. His total touches would rank him second to last amongst our power forward group and in the middle of the pack amongst our centers. He shot 73% on his finishing opportunities, using his size effectively and dunking anything he could, and also shows some ability to get up the floor and make some small contributions in transition. Nearly all of Thabeet’s touches came within 5 feet of the rim, as evidenced by the fact that he only took 14 jumpers all season. His 1.08 PPP on the block was better than any player we looked at with the exception of DaJuan Blair, but his 4.1 touches was below average for a center. Obviously Thabeet did a solid job getting more touches as time went on, but he’s still didn’t generate many scoring chances as a senior in comparison to the players he’s competing with for draft position.
Its more than a bit concerning that Thabeet was already having trouble making his presence felt on the offensive end on the NCAA, however efficient he may have been. He was after all, essentially a giant in a land of midgets. He won’t have anywhere near as big a physical advantage in the NBA as he did in college, which will make things even more difficult on him moving forward.
Thabeet struggles badly trying to create opportunities for himself, being incredibly reliant on the talent and generosity of his teammates to generate offense for him. When he was able to get the ball in scoring position, though, he was a major force. Thabeet scored a point on 62.7% of his half court offensive touches, ranking him first amongst all players we looked at. The problem is that he received such few touches, his 11.8 possessions would place him 25th amongst the power forwards we previously examined.
Considering how obvious his presence is on the court, you have to think that if his coaching staff and teammates saw him as a viable offensive option, he would have received far more touches this past season than he actually did—since obviously everyone involved was looking to win as many games as possible. Subjectively speaking, it wasn’t rare to see Thabeet become very passive on the court and only half-heartedly look for the ball. On top of that, his passing rate was very poor, the lowest in this group, and many potential possessions never even materialized due to his inability to make clean catches, leading to turnovers for others. It’s not a stretch to say that his teammates did not have enough confidence in his offensive skill-level to get him the ball in the half-court.
Players drafted a high as Thabeet are usually expected to offer more than that offensively. At this juncture, Thabeet is still very early in his offensive development. He could continue along his current path, using his post possessions to slowly improve his usage rate, or he could continue to rely on his teammates and remain an efficient, but underdeveloped role-player
The Thabeet question is going to be moot until at least the lottery results.
We all understand that Hasheem Thabeet’s a risk, that project center types tend to be overvalued come draft night, and that the question with *any* player is whether they represent good value at the pick used on them.
I don’t think people are quite stepping back from that, though, to recognize that Wolves fans have spent the last decade-plus, dating back to the young KG at least, pining for a “garbage man” center who would do a few useful things: guard the rim above all else, collect boards, and score his share without demanding the ball. Back at the trading deadline loads of Wolves fans were positively irate that we didn’t bid on Tyson Chandler, who has some obvious injury concerns and who’s pretty well established that his own offensive game has extremely little upside too.
The question is simply going to be whether the kid’s the right pick where we wind up, or whether we like other options. How Thabeet came to be a pariah among a fan base that so obviously has hankered for a player with *exactly* his projected traits, though, is a little bit of a mystery to me. It also baffles me to see people essentially arguing not to take him based on the existing roster. We’re so good now that we draft for need over talent? I’m hoping the new front office face can drive a stake through the heart of that idea from day one.
What does it matter with this loser organization what they do.
Worst leadership in the history of Minnesota sports even the Minnesota North Stars
The Wolves stink !
I think the Wolves should hire Doug Riseburough. He would be 100% better then Mchale and he knows nothing about Basketball. The Wolves can have the Wilds backwash
I agree Kestrel, I’ve been one of those people dreaming of a real center for over a decade.
To me in a worst case scenario, Thabeet could be like a Dennis Rodman/Ben Wallace type of player. Meaning great D, little offensive skills, and a lot of hustle and garbage baskets. But at 7′3″, that would be a very nice asset for any team to have.
In a perfect world… the center/power forward pairing complement each other. Meaning if Big Al is a post up player, we’d have a jump shooting center who could play with him. That’s the theory with Love… except both are weak defensively.
If you look at classic pairings (Ewing/Oakley), you get that kind of thing.
That’s not to say that’d I’d pick Thabeet.
I want a superstar. So I want to take a chance on a player who can be one, regardless of position.
Thabeet and Rubio both scare me.
Mister Know it All - Red McCombs was worse…$30 Mil under the cap and a last ranked defense. Made a bazillion dollars with the big time offense…suckered idiot football fans into thinking they had a realistic shot at it all…made the money…sold it all.
Thabeet blows. Pass on him…we need more help on the wings / point.
McCombs did sucker some people, but on the other hand Taylor’s not fooling anyone.
I think an interesting question is between WHAT SHOULD happen in the draft and WHAT WILL happen in the draft. I believe with the current crop of players that Griffin, Rubio and Thabeet will go 1-2-3. I also believe The Wolves would pick Thabeet if they were at No. 3. This is not necessarily my opinion about what The Wolves SHOULD do… I just believe these will be the top three picks, regardless of who is making the top-3 picks.
I actually believe that OKC is going to go front-court wherever they draft. They’ll probably wind up with the No. 1 pick and take Griffin, based on how the lottery usually seems to play out. If not Griffin, I think OKC will take either Thabeet or Jordan Hill. They already have a very strong, extremely athletic perimeter tandem in Westbrook and Durant. Their starting 4-5 spots right now are manned by Jeff Green and Nenad Krystic. I like both of those guys, but they pale dramatically in comparison to their current perimeter tandem. I believe OKC needs a shut-down defender at the 2-guard spot… not a shooter/slasher like Harden. On the other hand, some more beef along the frontline would be a huge help to their lineup.
Ugh, if we take Thabeet I’ll be so effin pissed.
As I’ve been saying the last couple days, I’m up in the air right now between Harden and Evans. If I had to choose today, I’d take Harden.
But I can also see the argument that it’s easier to find another athletic scoring 2-guard than it is to find a 7-3 player who (as Kestrel said) can “guard the rim above all else, collect boards, and score his share without demanding the ball.”
I think Thabeet is VERY likely to be that type of player, at minimum. And when I watched him in the tournament, he actually showed some decent footwork on the block and a couple of post, scoring moves.
Again, I want Harden or Evans. But I predict Thabeet will be the No. 3 player picked and that The Wolves would go that direction if they picked No. 3. And, frankly, I wouldn’t revolt if Thabeet was added to the fold.
I’m not too worried about the Wolves taking a project so long as it’s a project with a high probability of panning out. This isn’t going to be a team that will compete for a playoff spot for years anyways. So if Thabeet takes three years to really come into his own it’s not going to significantly hinder the franchise.
Even if he came out of the gates like the second coming of Mutumbo they’ve still got a ton of losing basketball in front of them.
As a rookie, even if Thabeet only gets 20 minutes per game, I believe he’d be an 8 ppg, 10 rpg, 2 bpg player who will alter a ton of shots and dramatically improve any team’s overall team defense.
In 2-3 years time with 25 mpg, I’d put Thabeet on 12-10-3 numbers. And I’d be OK with that.
If we’re picking 3rd, and I agree the issue there is moot until the lottery actually happens…but if we are picking third, it’s going to be extremely difficult to justify passing on Thabeet. We already have so many wing players, and while we do need one that can be a go-to type of player, we also very badly need defense and height in the post, and that’s the need that most fans see and talk about. Probably the only guy I could see us drafting third instead of Hasheem is Brandon Jennings, where the team can sell his potential and flash as reasons we didn’t reach with that pick.
Also, I think Thabeet’s lack of offense gets blown way out of proportion. First, he’s not as bad as people think. His scoring has steadily developed and will continue to with the right guys working with him. He’s never going to be a guy who scores 20ppg, but it’s not like he’s Jason Collins.
Also, Thabeet’s defense, or more importantly, his potential on defense, is so overwhelmingly high that his mediocre offense likely won’t be an issue in the end.
I think of Dikembe Mutombo here….Dikembe’s highes ppg average was 16, and that was his rookie year. For most of his career, including the year he went to the finals with the 76ers, he was scoring only about 10-11ppg. But his defense was so good it didn’t matter. Same with Diop the year the Mavs beat the Spurs to go to the finals.
Think of it like Shane Battier. Here’s a guy who averages single digits in the scoring column, but plays 35-40 mpg because the Rockets NEED him on the floor. His defense on guys like Kobe is so good it essentially erases the lack of scoring the Rockets get from him.
I guess I see the cupboard less bare than others. Even if we concede that the team isn’t going to compete next year with a Healthy Al, Love, and a newly added perimiter scorer, I don’t think you can make draft decisions in the bubble of 2009.
Just looking ahead to Chad Ford’s top 10 players for next year here is the list.
1. John Wall - PG
2. Ed Davis - PF
3. Derrick Favors - PF
4. Greg Monroe - PF
5. Al-Faroug Aminu - F
6. Willie Warren - G
7. Cole Aldrich - C
8. John Henson - F
9. Donatas Motiejunas - PF
10. Solomon Alabi - C
Granted, it’s way to early to be thinking about next years draft. But if you are ready to gamble on a project like Thabeet who will be a minimal contributor, thereby putting us back in the lottery, 6 of the current top 10 play PF or C with Henson labeled a shorter Kevin Garnett and Aminu more similar to Josh Smith. That means only 2 of these players are perimiters scorers and one is a PG.
Even moreso, I think if you put Thabeet in this group, He would be Top 10 and not Top 5.
My preference is that we roll dice with Harden, DeRozan or Evans as a wing, take the Best Available from the littany of PG’s at 18 and make a run for improvement this season. If we fall back in the Lottery next year because of Post Defense, they’re will be options.
Bryan -
I think those are all good points. This team is lacking in Defense, and glue guys like Battier and Mutombo have shown that you can be a starter and contributor with a more one dimensional skill set aimed at defense.
My only qualm about narrowing in on Thabeet is this notion that the lock down defender must be a Center. Our strongest 2 positions on the court right now are PF and C, I know some of you don’t view Al as a C, I do. That being said, as the Cavs have shown in the playoffs this year, West, Williams and Lebron are their three top defenders. Big Z is not a great defender, yet they still rank as one of if not the best defensive squads. I realize LeBron is the anchor of that D and is impossible to replicate.
Thabeet playing 20 minutes in the post is not going to help Foye, Telfair, and Miller keep guys in front of them or play better perimiter defense. Not only is our perimiter scoring horrible, but without Brewer, I think we had the worst perimiter defense in the league.
I realized I overlooked Verejao, but my point still stands, perimiter defense is just as big of problem as post defense with the current roster.
But a top flight post defender can turn a team into a defensive powerhouse even with mediocre wing defenders. Look at what Dwight Howard has done with the Magic this year. No one’s going to point out Hedo or Lewis or Jameer Nelson as great defenders, but then you have D12 getting 3 blocks a game and leading the league in rebounding, and suddenly the Magic are the 5th or 6th best defensive team in the league.
And no, the defender doesn’t have to be a center, but that’s the position that makes the most sense for us. First, it’s the only one really open. The other positions at least have some servicable player there. And second, it just makes sense for it to be that way. A great defensive post player, especially one who can block shots like Thabeet, can make up for a lot of inefficiencies on the wings. It doesn’t work in reverse though…a great great wing defender is basically helpless when the ball is in the post.
But I would argue that center is a strong point for us. I consider it our biggest weakness because we have no one to actually play the position. Both Al and Love are power forwards out of position in the middle. I’ve always said, and I still very much believe, that if we’re going anywhere significant, either Love will have to be a sixth man or one of them has to be traded, because as a duo, we have absolutely no defense in the paint.
All good points Bryan. After next tuesday all this talk about Thabeet will be moot because we’ll either get the #3 or we won’t get Thabeet. I guess I’m assuming that Rubio is the consensus #2 pick behind Griffin but do you feel strongly enough about Thabeet to choose in front of Rubio?
No, not at all. Personally, I’d pick Rubio over Blake Griffin, and quite honestly, I don’t think anyone would look twice if Rubio gets picked first in this draft. The NBA is becoming a point guard’s league, and Ricky has already shown he is a great defender and has other-worldy court vision and timing.
I definitely agree that we have more going for us than most people think. I don’t see this year as a year we have to try and hit .500 or anything like that. Use this draft to add a couple good pieces and use this year to just get our feet back under us. Get Al healthy, get Corey healthy, let the new management start slow and get a good feel for the situation. I think with the free agent class in 2010 and the depth and talent in the 2010 draft you mentioned, that that’s the year to try and hit home runs, so to speak. The only way we make a major leap forward this year is if we land at the top of the draft, and like you said, the odds of that are basically zero.
Centrist,
I’m with you in that I’d like to go for a great wing, and then a pg later on. That would be my plan.
Personally, I think the best pick in this draft would be to be #4 (something that is impossible for us). I just don’t think that top three will prove to be the best in the draft.
It’s time for us to find our Kobe/Roy. The rest will take care of itself.
For those harping on Evans poor shooting, you can learn to shoot, it a lot harder to learn to penetrate and nearly impossible to improve foot speed all that much. Parker learned to shoot, Rose is learning to shoot, etc. Speed and athleticism you can’t learn.
Give me the guy w/the speed and athleticism, then give him a ball and a hoop in the offseason. Shooting isn’t all that difficult, its merely repetition, repitition, repitition. Putting up 500 shots/day for a summer will improve shooting, you can run sprints all day if you want to, your speed won’t improve as much as your shooting will.
We need a guy on the perimeter who demands defensive attention, who can get into the seams and score…aka we need speed and athleticism. Look at what Rondo/Rose are doing and they are known for everything but their shooting.
Also liked the post regarding next years draft, we can pick up a C there if we decide we need one and don’t/can’t address it via FA. I see Love/Al sharing minutes this year, 35/23 split or so, with limited time together depending on matchups.
I think GT is learning what it means to hire a GM w/o any state ties and what its going to take to lure one of the better ones here.
I can see GT wanting even demanding Hoiberg staying on w/whatever the new office is, i also don’t see the new GM having a problem w/that.
I think what we need more than an overhaul at the GM spot is the scouting dept, clearly they have given bad advice and missed on more than one player.
“For those harping on Evans poor shooting, you can learn to shoot”
Someone let Corey Brewer know. :\
I agree with your assessment of Evans. Very rarely do players come into the league with all the shots (Curry may be the exception). Most spend years adding different shots will come around.
I think Evans can come around. Rubio is another guy without a great shot. He’ll come around.
But you never know.
Corey hit twice as many threes in the 15 games he played this year than he did his entire rookie season. He’s getting better, and it would have been more obvious if he hadn’t been hurt most of the year.
Great discussion on the Center/Perimeter player debate. I think the only thing that this discussion conclusively proves is that there is no silver bullet in this year’s draft. All we can hope to do is fill ONE of our major holes (PG, SG, C). I agree that we’re in good shape moving forward, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have multiple, major holes to fill. That’s why I’ve stated that The Wolves HAVE to take the best player available… unless that best player available is Jordan Hill because we absolutely can’t take another PF unless we win the lottery and take Griffin (although I’d vote for Rubio or a trade-down if we win the lotto). So, unless something unforeseen happens with the lottery, I say we take whoever we have rated highest among our three need positions. So if we draft No. 5, it will probably be Harden, Evans, DeRozen or Jennings. If we move up to 2 or 3, then Rubio and Thabeet become stronger options.
Two thoughts I have on some of the comments from the last couple hours…
Bryan - I completely disagree that a “great wing defender is basically helpless [defensively] when the ball is in the post.” Yes, I guess technically once the ball is dumped in the post, a perimeter player can’t do much more than help-defend. But you can’t look at it in such an unrealistic vacuum. You can’t look at one isolated type of play. A great wing defender prevents opposing guards from penetrating into the paint. A great wing defender prevents opposing guards from feeding the ball into the post. Yes… if every play started from scratch with the ball in the post, then your point would be valid. But that’s not how the rules of basketball work. Unless it’s a gadget play like a full-court pass or lob into the paint, play generally starts with the ball in the hands of a perimeter player and needs to be worked into the post. A great perimeter defender is where a team’s defense STARTS.
Centrist Sean - great look ahead to the 2010 draft. The only problem I have with your statement of waiting to get a post player until next year is that we’ve already got three PFs (Love, Al, Smith). I don’t know anything about Alibi. But even if you include him, there are only two centers on that list. I’m not sure if Alibi is good enough to have an immediate and/or long-term impact, but I hesitate to assume we can find a starter-quality center next year. I think Aldrich is a future NBA starter, but most of the post players on that list are PFs… so while those guys may be great, I don’t see it as beneficial to add another PF. If we can get Aldrich, then I’m with you. If we get the chance to draft Thabeet this year, but pass on him; then don’t get into a position to get Aldrich next year, then what do we do?
Either way, if Thabeet is available and The Wolves have him rated best-available on their draft board, I think it would be very risky to pass on him in favor of a lesser player at another position.
Great commentary, everybody!
next year’s draft.
There’s a great article on ESPN.com about Chauncey Billups.
KG, the GM, sure was right about him.
Foo -
In regards to next years draft, I wasn’t necessarily saying I wanted any of those particular players, moreso saying that if the team envisions itself being back in the high lottery next year, which I think we would be with Thabeet, that that the value for our pick and needing a perimiter player may not be solid.
Granted we may not even use our pick next year. Come the 2010 draft we are going to have a lot of young players already, Jefferson, Love, Brewer, #5, #18, and possibly Foye. With Cap Space, a lottery pick, and hopefully young players to build with, trading our pick for a veteran may be the way to go.
Chris Mullen is available now. Obviously he is rumored to be going to the Knicks. But you never know. This is when GT should open the wallet and make something happen.
Yes, I know I’m being ridiculous.
Yeah, I agree Rodman ^^^^^ I have been wanting CM for quite some time as I was pretty sure he was done out there. He brought in a lot of talent out there so who knows.
I am opposed to bringing in Mullin. If he brought in so much talent why have the Warriors been so bad? They won one playoff series the entire time he was the GM. He was good at evaluating 2nd round picks that could be a role player, what good would that do for the Wolves? His lottery picks have basically all been atleast half busts except for Biedrins.
The Billups article was great. Everyone is so beaten down from all the first round exits and years following WCF that it is easy to forget some of those teams. Re: KG, it is great that he got Billups to come. But if he and Chauncey were so tight, why didn’t he stay with the same $ on the table? That was TB’s first injury, and he was a great (v. good) point guard. You don’t demote an All-Star based on missing 1/2 season with an injury.
The thing that struck me was the timing. Seems that without Brandon getting hurt, Chauncey doesn’t get the PT to get his offer from Detroit. But if the Wolves had known Brandon wouldn’t be able to come back, they would have guaranteed Billups the starting job. Terrible timing.
For the draft - best player available, but make sure you walk away with at least one PG. Jrue at 18 too late?
I think Jrue Holiday is very possible at No. 18. Earlier on, it sounded like he would return to UCLA if he wasn’t guaranteed to be in the lottery. But the story I posted from nbadraft.net seemed to indicate that he’s probably in for sure now.
So either he just doesn’t want to go to school or he has a lottery promise. Either way, I continue to say that I am crossing my fingers for either Holiday, Maynor or BJ Mullens at No. 18. I’ve got to think at least one of those three will drop to the 18th pick.
I will be absolutely shocked if Holiday is available at 18. It sounds like the more teams look at him and see him work out the more they are going to like him. I actually won’t be suprised if he ends up in the top 10.
I think jama is right on Holiday. Some folks already have moved him up into the top 7-8. Somebody is going to bite on him in the top 10 unless he flops in his workouts. I think Maynor is the guy likely to slip to 18.
Matt,
I agree it was bad timing with Billups. I really think Denver could go all the way this year. They have a lot of talent.
jama, You may be right about Mullen. But he is still 10 times better than every choice we are looking at.
The guy I really want is Kiki Vandeweghe.
jama, Mullen also draft Monta Ellis and Anthony Randolph. Two guys I’d like to have on our team.
I agree that Jrue Holiday is unlikely at No. 18… if we could get him, Maynor or Mullens, I’d be geeked. But it will probably be a draft selection based on attrition rather than choice as The Wolves will obviously have to pick from what’s left. Of those three players, I think BJ Mullens is the most likely to slip to No. 18.
I have a lot of questions about Mullens, but he’s a legit 7-0 and very athletic. That will help our front-court and as our 2nd selection of the day, I’d be thrilled to get some C help. There are so few legit centers available and so many PGs that will go around No. 28, that I’d almost prefer to go:
1. Best possible SG (Harden, Evans, DeRozen)
2. Mullens
3. Best possible PG (Collison, Mills, Calathes…)
We keep all three picks, then add Hinrich to play PG immediately while the No. 28 PG pick develops behind Hinrich and Telfair.
We’d still have a lot of work to do on the court, but we’d have legit players at every position.
1. Hinrich - Telfair - (Collison)
2. (Harden) - Foye - B.Brown
3. Brewer - Gomes - Cardinal
4. Love - C.Smith - (2nd-rounder like Alida Aminu)
5. Jefferson - (BJ Mullens) - Madsen
BTW… that proposed lineup includes swapping Mike Miller for Kirk Hinrich and a future 1st-round pick. I think that’s realistic because Miller and Hinrich are comparible-impact players, but Miller has an expiring contract, so we’ll get a draft pick as well.
Foo -
I think Mike Miller wants some minutes too. Mullens at 18 wouldn’t be bad. We’d still need a point guard, but with damn near 15 of them going in the 2009 draft, we should be able to find one on the trade market or have little competition to draft one in 2010.
I have a problem with Maynor at 18. He’s a senior who has been starting at the point for years. He has improved steadily, but there is no mystery with him. If he slides to 18 after everyone has seen him workout, the reason is that he’s likely not that good, at least not likely to be a difference maker. It is possible that every team will value potential more than current ability, but if all the tweeners and 19 year old PGs go before Maynor, I wouldn’t expect him to become much of a difference maker. Personally I like Maynor more than most of the guys I don’t trust to ever reach their “ceiling”, but I also concede that NBA professionals are better evaluators than I am, and if he is available at 18, I think we’re looking at an upgrade but not an answer.
I do think that Holiday is worlds better than Maynor. Maynor is more NBA ready, but is years older. Holiday brings the ready-to-go defensive skill set that would make him a fantastic reserve as he learns the game.
Fiveanddime,
Every year there are people who fall through the cracks. Too often picks are based on hype and collective buzz, rather than the common sense view that a guy can play.
To me a guy like Maynor has star potential. The knock on him has been his jumper. It just keeps getting better and better.
It too like Holiday.
Foo, Where are you getting the good word on Mullens (I’m asking)? From what I’ve read, he sounds like a big stiff.
I haven’t seen him play though.
fiveanddime - I think Holiday is the better basketball player, but that Maynor is definitely more of a pure PG. I’m very leery about adding another combo-guard, though I believe that Holiday will develop into a very good NBA PG at some point. I just believe that Maynor is good enough to come in and start from Day 1 at PG.
I think Maynor will slip mostly because he’s a smaller-conference guy who, as you stated, played four years of college ball. Unfortunately, 4-year college players are almost regarded with a black eye… the perception can be that if was any good, he would have declared for the draft 2-3 years ago.
But I actually believe Maynor is a slightly different situation. He had ACC talent since the beginning of his college career, but his jump shot took time to develop and I believe he and Coach Anthony Grant felt his long-term projection to The NBA would be much better if he stayed and developed.
Rodman - Mullens has some work to do, no doubt. I would be on board with selecting him based on two rare things that you can’t coach - size (legit 7-0) and athleticism (youtube him and watch some of the things he does). Further, the combination of 7-0 and athletic is extremely rare.
He needs time to develop, but he’s extremely young and has time. Right off the bat, I’d project he’s a 10-15 mpg player. But, even though he’s a big white-rock, this guy is definitely not in the same lineage as Greg Ostertag.
Chad Ford sums it up in his chat this morning:
Jeff (Saint Paul, MN): There is so much question around the Wolves right now, but draft wise, what position do you think the next GM should target as their lottery pick?
Chad Ford: (11:52 AM ET ) I don’t know why … but it just seems like destiny that Thabeet will end up here.
Destiny to me means another lottery F-Up for the Wolves…
I’d say Mullens plays more like a poor mans Tyson Chandler. The thing that bothers me about Mullens is his lack of defense in College. He should have dominated Big 10 Centers but that never happened.
Centrist do you have a link to that chat?
This draft is full of question marks. The good news for the Wolves is that they may be able to pick up a gem at 18. The bad news is that the guy they take at 18 probably only has a slightly worse chance of success as the guy they take with their first pick (unless they get some ping-pong ball luck). From almost the top of the draft (#2 if you’re not a Rubio fan or #3 if you are) to the early 20s, you’ve got a bunch of guys with intriguing qualities and clear deficiencies.
This draft is going to show you which front offices and coaching staffs do their jobs well, because they will be able to find players who fit the kind of basketball they want to play and build on those good qualities and minimize the bad ones.
That’s the problem the Wolves face right now: there’s no larger plan, and there won’t be until the front office nonsense gets figured out. Even in the McHale era, it was clear that the front office and the coaches weren’t on the same page.
Centrist - I would dig it if Thabeet joins the team. There are going to be very, very, very few stars from this draft. So if you can get a 7-3 center who will easily project to be a 12-10-3 player within a year or two, what’s not to like.
I could see the doubts about him if The Wolves were to be passing over a sure-fire star in order to take Thabeet. But if you’re realistic about this draft, I think it’s hard to be down on Thabeet.
By all scouts accounts this draft is basically filled with a bunch of role players. Yeah there’s a chance that one or two guys drafted outside the top 5 turn into All-Stars but at least half the guys that are going to get drafted in the first round this year wouldn’t have been drafted in the first round last year.
I still think if another team is willing to trade for one or both of the Wolves last two picks you do it as long as you get any value in return.
I know this is stupid to discuss until after the lottery… but I suspect the Rubio is one of those guys who may make a fuss and not want to play here. I heard that he personally has to pay $6 million to buy out of his Euro contract.
The thing I don’t like about Mullens is that in every game I watched of his, he commited at least one boneheaded foul. He’s such a project. If he’s around at 18, you’ve got to consider it, but I don’t know if I ever see it happening for him at the next level.
Foo,
I checked out youtube. Mullens does have some hops. I wouldn’t go there until our 3rd pick.
We need two solid picks.
Rodman
It’s been reported that Rubio is in negotiations with his Euro team to lower the buyout, otherwise there is talk he may take them to court. He’s expecting a big shoe contract that will help him pay off his buyout as well. I can’t think of any Euro player that has forced his way into a specific market, but I guess he could be the first.
Regarding the Rubio buyout, I read somewhere that his buyout actually increases next year, and that although extremely unpredictable, it’s likely that the Euro rises against the dollar during the next 12 months as well. What this means is that the buyout is going to be a larger amount of Euro’s that will take an increasingly larger amount of dollars to pay off. I also heard the shoe contract money he is going put towards a buyout, but really he should be doing his best to get over here now. Euro teams are suffering even more than NBA teams, so getting here this year no matter which team may pick him is likely in his best interest.
Jama,
I don’t think players force their way to teams, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they talk to teams and say if you draft then then they won’t come.
The only incident is Yi with Milwaukee (he did finally come though).
Maybe I’m getting paranoid. Been a Wolves fan too long.
What’s the deal?!? Post something… anything… what is the reason for the hold up?
Jerry’s on vacation for another couple days, so I wouldn’t expect anything soon. Can’t blame him for needing a few days off from us.
On the other hand I think Taylor and the boys are on vacation too.
This is Brian Stensaas’ opportunity to make a name for him self. Jerry being on vacation is no reason for Brian not to post an update.
Well, Taylor can take solace in learning that he didn’t make SI’s list of the five worst NBA owners. The lucky 5: Donald Sterling (Clippers), Cablevision/James Dolan (Knicks), Chris Cohan (Warriors), Michael Heisley (Grizzlies), and Robert Johnson (Bobcats).
I don’t understand why all the hatred for Glen Taylor. IMO he is a good owner.
His worst move so far has been his loyalty to McHale. Besides that, he spent over the cap and paid tax when KG was here. He bought the team as a local owner and saved the team from potentially moving. Under his watch we drafted KG and at least made the Western Conference finals rather than circling the lottery drain.
If He fires McHale in 2006 he would have earned a lot of respect from the local fan base, but then again, once the team realized they f-ed up with KG, their moves since in trying to unload all their bad contracts, acquire picks, and acquire talent have been more than acceptable.
What could Glen have done different?
A good owner? Bah!
* The whole country-club mentality of the organization is due to Taylor. As noted, he’s been far too loyal to McHale. I would argue, actually, that McHale and Saunders should have been broomed after year 6 of their tenure (and was arguing such on this newspaper’s website). If someone goes somewhere else and is fired, they seemingly always come back. Sidney Lowe. Randy Wittman. Rob Babcock. J.B. Bickerstaff. Taylor is allergic to new ideas and quick to scapegoat everyone but himself. The handling of Dwane Casey is emblematic. Casey’s critique of the team’s personnel turned out to be spot-on (as McHale ended up unloading the very players Casey identified as being part of the problem) and he accomplished far more with the same sub-par talent than Randy Wittman did. Also, Taylor’s snide comments about Flip Saunders were unbecoming. And, we’re seeing it played out now, as Taylor’s inexplicable allegiance to Fred Hoiberg is driving away candidates for the head job in the front office.
* He was the key player in the Joe Smith debacle that made the job of building around KG all the more difficult.
* Taylor has gone cheap since the fall-apart of the KG-Cassell-Sprewell team. The decision to trade Garnett is part of it. Instead of spending smarter, Taylor has stopped spending.
Sean,
You’re more detailed description of the country club atmosphere is encompassed by Taylor’s overt loyalty to McHale. Joe Smith was egregious. Those two are excellent points.
Of course GT has gone cheap since the decision to trade Garnett. It’s the only way to move forward. We were paying the tax, had little wins to show for it, and a bunch of untradeable long term contracts. Our only move was to rebuild and even with good trades with Boston, Miami, Dallas, and Memphis to purge salary, we are still only going to get below the cap in 2010. Going cheap was a necessity.
I don’t think Taylor’s allegiance to Hoiberg and the like is inexplicable at all. For a businessman he doesn’t seem to grasp the concept of sunk cost and seems reluctant to spend the money necessary to buy out contracts and reshuffle personnel where needed.
Taylor shouldn’t be getting dissed here….McHale is the reason for the the problems from the start.
Even their first round pick POOH has turned out to be a big mistake…he’s recently indicted on a big FBI drug case outta Philly
Centrist - I would argue those two points, in and of themselves, are enough to make Taylor a bad owner. It’s about on the court results, and this team hasn’t produced any. Making the Western Conference Finals once isn’t a big deal. In the time Taylor has owned the team, 10 of the teams in the West have made it that far, and the Nuggets are likely going to make it 11 in the next couple of days. Only the Clippers, Grizzlies, Warriors, and Hornets haven’t done it. I would hope we hold ourselves to a somewhat higher standard.
But let’s talk more about the going cheap point. Taylor’s decision to go cheap wasn’t the only way to move forward. He could have insisted on McHale getting more established talent in return for Garnett or he could have signed off on moving Garnett a year earlier for a better package of players. Or he could have fired McHale and brought in a fresh set of eyes who might have been able to do something different. Taylor’s move has doomed this team (barring dramatic improvement next year) to at least five consecutive seasons of missing the playoffs. The only teams in the league that have a longer streak of not making the playoffs are the expansion Bobcats and the Knicks. Again, I would hope we’re holding ourselves to a higher standard.
Taylor is the one who hired McHale and continued to support him despite overwhelming public and media criticism. Furthermore he continues to let him cast his shadow over the organization and exert some level of influence over the team.
Ultimately responsibility lies with him.
sportsjunkie — Who hired Kevin McHale? Who didn’t fire Kevin McHale?
And I’m not sure what Pooh has anything to do with either Taylor or McHale, he predates both.
And Pooh has been charged with obstruction of justice not with anything drug related. He supposedly somehow found out his childhood friend was going to be taken down by the police and warned him. That’s bad, but unless more details surface that’s a lot different than being involved with a drug ring in a significant way.
Rodman - Mullens has way too much potential and physical traits to last until No. 28. He’ll be going right in the range of our 2nd pick, whether we pick him or not. I’d prefer to have Holiday or Maynor at that spot. But if those two are gone, there aren’t going to be many alternatives better than Mullens.
If we pass on Mullens at No. 18, who are you expecting us to take - Wayne Ellington? DeJuan Blair? Jeff Teague? Chase Budinger? All those guys have just as many question marks as BJ Mullens… but those guys aren’t 7-0 and athletic like Mullens.
IMO, if you’re going to gamble on a project (which is the most-likely outcome of our No. 18 pick), then you should gamble on size. It’s so hard to find athletic 7-footers.
As for GT being cheap: well thats just stupid. How many contracts has he bought out? Cheap owners don’t buy out Juwan Howard’s contract–they make him play until they get at least a semi-decent offer for him, or he takes a huge reduction in his BO demands.
The only thing GT has done wrong is shake up the wrong depts–the coaches. The scouting dept needs a massive overhaul. Everyone gone. Then bring in an actual scout to run that dept. Haskins doesn’t know jack.
Speaking of Dwane Casey … we should hire him to coach again. He was legit and we screwed him.
Taylor bought Howard out for $4 million less than he would have earned had he stayed here. And if Taylor had traded Howard, he would have had to take back equivalent salary. So, in net, Taylor saved money with the buyout.
To the point about GT being cheap, I don’t agree with that. It’s actually pretty sound-strategy not to over-spend on players during this down-time since KG was traded. If he were to approve spending cash on so-so free agents, then he’d be spending like The Knicks. It’s better to bottom out, build from the draft and only add pricey free agents at the final tweaking stage of what is already a pretty well-constructed team.
Until we get to that point, there’s absolutely no point is over-spending on free agents.
Now, going cheap on your front office is another story… you can’t go on the cheap with the hiring of your potential top executive.
Foo,
I agree with your take.
My thought is that I want a new backcourt in the draft. So I’d love to get someone like DeRozan/Harden/Evans and then a Maynor/Holiday pg. I’d do whatever it takes to get those picks.
Though this is up for debate, I really don’t think those guys are that much of projects. I honestly can’t imagine someone like Maynor not being a successful pro.
That’s why I just want to make sure we get two solid picks with a lot of talent and athleticism.
To be honest, I’m not that knowledgeable about the latter part of the draft.
Sean, I’m lovin’ the GT smack down! Much deserved.
After reading excellent articles on ESPN (one about Chauncey Billups and the other about Ron Artest and Shane Batter), I’ve been reminded on one HUGE missing piece we need. Veteran leadership. We need our Sam Mitchell. Someone to really lead and show the pups what to do.
I suppose we have Miller, Cardinal, Madson… but think we need to possible even overspend a bit, to get some veteran who would command a little respect and help the team out.
I highly recommend those two articles.
Rodman - I definitely do not think that Maynor is a project. I believe he could start right away and be efficient outside of some of the normal growing pains.
To clarify, I believe if Maynor and Holiday are gone, THEN everybody else beyond that point will be projects. And if it gets to that point, then I like Mullens.
I’m not suggesting that Taylor pay bad players big money.
I’m suggesting that Taylor chose a strategy designed to save himself money when he decided to trade KG. He could have taken other paths other than the complete rebuild. Once you make that decision, though, I’m in full support of playing it to the fullest — that’s why I’m opposed to acquiring Hinrich, for instance. But let’s not pretend that the only option Taylor had was trading KG for Al Jefferson and a bunch of spare parts and cap fodder. He chose this route.
And, I don’t think that one can assume that Taylor is going to open the checkbook again once this rebuild is over.
Sean - name one player who was on the table for KG who is better than Al Jefferson.
And, I completely disagree, KG’s contract was preventing The Wolves from advancing. They had to move him. It sucked and it was Taylor’s and McHale’s ineptitude that caused us to woefully underperform for all of KG’s best years. But once they had gotten into the point they were in a couple years back, the only way out was to move KG and hit rock-bottom.
Agreed Foo.
Call me crazy, but I trade our two later 1rst rounders to move into the 13-14-15 range. I don’t know who would want two guaranteed contracts though.
Also, I would hope Pekovic (sp?) would come over soon and fill that hole.
I agree that KG’s contract held us back.
But… if we hit any of our draft picks (KG and Roy would be tearing it up right now), it would be a whole different story.
Foo — As I’ve said before, the fact that Jefferson was the best player available didn’t mean we got the best package. The Bulls package was a better package than what we got. Your mileage may vary.
I just can’t accept that dooming your franchise to three years in the wilderness is the only way to go. If that’s the best idea you’ve got, then you’re not done thinking yet. And the fact that at that point, Taylor couldn’t see that his basketball operations were off the rails and that new leadership was needed is unconscionable. If Taylor was really committed to winning, he would have brought in somebody new and let them take a crack at it with Kevin Garnett instead of throwing in the towel.
Rodman -
You forget that KG and Roy wouldn’t be tearing it up right now. Instead we would have been forced to sign KG to a huge extension and with the limitations of the TC market we would be hugely sweating out KG’s current injury which is the most mysterious injury in recent memory. It doesn’t require surgery, it’s cost him almost 3 months, and he is out indefinitely. He only has 3 years and $60 Million left on his contract…
And it was Glen Taylor who sat in front of the media and fans and told us that he could still build a winner even with KG’s contract. So, that’s the basis I judge him by. He said the contract wouldn’t be a problem, so I expect it not to be a problem.
The real problem wasn’t KG’s contract. It was that they had a front office that didn’t know what it was doing in its attempts to complement KG.
Sean -
I can’t help but echo the counterpoint that you want us to be the Knicks west. What New York has shown us is that the correct way to move forward with bad contracts like Allan Houston, is to hedge your bets, suffer for a few years with high lottery picks, and then come back breathing. The kncicks have tried your philiosphy and instead pick in the range of 7-14 every year, with no cap room to improve, and they’ve been doing this for 6 Years with several more to go. I like your passion to see a winning product on the court, but thankfuly the front office is a little more patient than you.
Sean - you’re using revisionist history. We had to move KG. We had so many bad contracts and absolutely zero flexibility to do anything. It had to happen and that was the consensus at the time.
And as for that Chicago package… it’s been proven that stars win in this league. A collection of good players doesn’t get it done. I’d much rather have one star than 3 good players.
I would argue I’ve been plenty patient. The fact that I still care about an organization that has shot itself in the foot over and over again for the last 20 years is evidence of that.
Foo — As I’ve said before, the Wolves had the star player that offseason, too. But they traded him for cash and a lesser player.
What is the surprise that the team and management are paralyzed by inaction. They have never been able to make a decision. God I hope we don’t find that Mchale was not the real problem.
Casey did speak the truth to authority and we saw what happened to him. The man should have won coach of the year for winning 20 with that crap.
I’ve been disgusted with the moves this franchise has made for years. But I’ve been willing to wipe the slate clean. They done a great job taking their medicine and cleaning up the books. Made some incredible salary dumps. I believe the KG trade had to happen, same with the Love/Mayo.
I’m happy with Big Al and his very reasonable deal (excuse me for saying $13 million is reasonable!).
The next key is that they clean out the front office.
And now we have to draft some exciting players. We’ve been drafting solid players. I want some excitement. Get someone who can light it up.
Rodman,
You’re contradicting yourself. In one breath you say “They done a great job taking their medicine and cleaning up the books. Made some incredible salary dumps… I’m happy with Big Al and his very reasonable deal” and in the next you say that they have to “clean out the front office”. Man, the T-Wolves just can’t win with critics like you!
Foo,
Thank you for your defence of KLove’s defence. My concern has been what I’ve seen on highlight clips where opponents all too many times have taken it right to the hoop unopposed. Love comes off as flat-footed, just the opposite of what you claim (”if you actually take the time to watch Love play, he’s got EXCELLENT footwork and small-space quickness. He does a great job of moving his feet and getting into position defensively.”) Nevertheless, the dominance in the paint has - with rare exception - been in the T-Wolves favour with Jefferson/Love/Smith grinding it out, and with Miller snapping up any stray rebounds. StopNPop over at Canis Hoopus has some serious statistical analysis that shows just how solid Jefferson and Love have been defensively.
So, I’m wondering now if maybe I’ve been wrong about KLove’s defence. I suppose no sense getting busted up taking a charge when the basket’s a given. (KG certainly played that way… and logged a lot of games injury free.) BTW, since you were wondering, turns out I’m that guy who “who lives abroad and doesn’t ever watch the games”… just glued to the radio with NBA Audio pass. It allows for an interesting perspective. I’ll tell you more if you’re curious.
Art,
Just because you dump salaries doesn’t mean you are a well run franchise.
Where’s the talent? Where’s the depth? Where are the high quality draft picks?
We are so far from challenging for a championship it’s crazy.
Art,
To use an analogy… just because a contractor is good at gutting a house, doesn’t mean he’s the right man for the rebuild.
Sean: sure GT saved money on Howards buyout w/him agreeing to take a cut to be released, but he paid him all that money to play for someone else. ala Michael Finley. That still hurts, paying for someone not to play, his money is still on the books, comes off next year i believe. It would’ve been better to get at least something for him…a pick and a lesser over paid player–ala cardinal.
GT’s problem is that he has fired the wrong people-the coaches. I also wonder how much influence KG had on many of those bad contracts. Hassel/Hudson come to mind. The scouting dept needs the overhaul, doesn’t matter who the GM is, if you have the same scouts feeding him the same crap, he’s going to make similar decisions.
They had to trade KG of they’d be in the same cycle that killed them for years..just good enough to contend for the playoffs, mid first round selections.
I’d also love to see the TW’s package the two later picks and possibly a player for an earlier pick, problem is finding a taker. Although w/this weak draft you may be able to find someone who is willing to do it. We have more than one expiring contract we can throw in to sweeten the deal. We absolutely need to hit 2/3 homeruns. If we don’t get 2 starters out of this draft we’re in trouble. I hope we get the 4/5th pick. Then move up to the 12/13th pick.
Sorry guys I was wrong about when McHale started with the team. His era didn’t begin with Marv and Harv but he was brought in by Taylor as Minnesota’s golden boy and savior of the francise…….boy was Taylor wrong.
It’s funny how so many people here have different views and opinions on which way to go in the draft. I wish they had three 1st round picks every year because it gives them soo many options.
Just give the reins to THE Mayor.
Yeah. Who wants to get out of the lottery anyways?
How damn hard is it for Taylor to admit that he’s bombed so far, and that he needs to give up control to someone that actually has a basketball mind? Apparently it’s next to impossible because every candidate seems to have walked away, leaving the job for Hoiberg who may or may not be qualified, but will not bring any sense of hope to this organization. We needed a clean sweep.
I second the Mayor vote, but McHale and Co. needs to go….
Taylor is cheap because :
He continually trades 2nd round picks for money. Other owners are being smart and buying draft picks from Phoenix and other teams. Even when we lost the 1st round picks in the Joe Smith debacle, Taylor never once bought a first round pick from another team. Dumb move. This let our talent base dwindle until we had no valuable assets and we couldn’t put pieces around KG.
Taylor is never going to pay the big money to go 30+ million over the salary cap and eat all that luxury tax money like the Boston owner did. Boston won a championship and is maybe on their way to a faceoff vs. Cleveland because their owner is willing the pay the money and the big luxury tax bill to bring home one or multiple titles.
For years, he didn’t insist on having a big presence in Europe and other international markets, which ended up with us falling behind the rest of the league in evaluating international talent.
We’ve had opportunities to trade expiring contracts to bring in players in the past. He almost always lets the contracts expire. Did he trade Jason Collins’ contract this past year ? Even when Sprewell was not going to be resigned, he didn’t trade his 14.6 million contract. We have a better chance of bringing in a talented player in a trade, like we did with Cassell and Sprewell, than we do in competing with the big markets in signing a free agent. Over the years, our free agent signings have always been a bust.
No Thabeet !
Since the Draft Lottery is next Tuesday, and this franchise never has any luck whatsoever, I thought I throw out a fantasy hypothetical since it clear this situation will never present itself.
Let’s pretend that Glen Taylor slipped some money under the table to Ernst & Young and the Wolves get the #1 pick. Let’s also pretend that the Wizards get the #2. I put the Wizards at #2 because they are said to like Rubio a lot, so we’ll assume that they will take him.
What should the wolves do?
(1) Draft Griffin and keep him.
(2) Draft Griffin and trade him?. What type of package would be worth it?
(3) Trade Jefferson and Love and take Griffin. What type of package could we expect in return?
(4) Take Rubio.
McHale and Taylor have made plenty of mistakes, but no one is seriously making a comparison to the pre-McHale/Taylor era - right? The Sid Lowe and Bill Blair, Luc Longley and Felton Spencer years?
Also, re: the KG trade. If Bynum could stay healthy, LA would seem to have been a good alternative. But if (yes, IF) the team can make the right moves this summer, Big Al would be a monster in the playoffs. It’s the right long-term cornerstone to have.
Matt — If your standard is merely being better than the pre-McHale era, then what’s the point of even having a team? We should be holding ourselves up against good teams, not content that we’re somewhat better than the very worst of times.
The Minnesota Timberwolves: “Not As Bad As We Used to Be”. Very catchy!
Centrist
I think I would see what Love’s trade value is and move him after taking Griffin. I don’t think Griffin is a guarantee but he is the closest in this draft.
Either that or set up a deal before the draft where they will trade Griffin for a SG/PG and future picks.
Gendo - Some examples that could work with our expiring deals are and teams that could probably be interested in moving a longer-term contract and a pricy guaranteed rookie contract in exchange for a less-pricy guaranteed rookie contract:
WITH CHARLOTTE:
*Cardinal, No. 28 for Nazr Mohammed, No. 12
WITH INDIANA:
*Cardinal, No. 28 for Jeff Foster, No. 13
*Cardinal, No. 28 for TJ Ford, No. 13
*Madsen, No. 28 for Roy Hibbert, No. 13
WITH PHOENIX:
*Madsen, No. 28 for Robin Lopez, No. 14
*Cardinal, No. 28 for Leandro Barbosa, No. 14
Foo -
I like either of those Phoenix deals, especially the one for Robin Lopez if it means we then can’t draft Thabeet.
Centrist - not necessarily sure if any of those deals would get done or if they make sense, but they seem like the only type where a cash-slashing team could shed a pick higher than our No. 18 spot.
Any of those deals could land us Harden, Maynor/Holiday, Mullens in the draft… not a bad haul to get a young prospect at each of the three spots we need to improve. That said, I don’t believe it’s likely that we’ll have three 1st-round picks on the roster next year. But, I’d personally like to see that happen.
If we get the #1 pick and are going to trade Griffin or Love, we better make sure we get a player that is going to have a better career and make a bigger impact on the Wolves than Rubio.
Not just a trade for an average player, a future #1 with no potential for an all-star pick and some cash savings for Glen. (Not that the new GM would make trades like that…)
Basically, you better get a young all-star, or I would just pick Rubio.
Is someone trading us a young all-star for Love? For Griffin?
Also, we haven’t had any lotto luck since when? Has it been a year already?
Foo
The trades look good and all, but I see no chance that any of those teams make those trades. Charlotte might be interested in moving from 12 to 18 but I think you’d have to give up more then Cardinal’s contract.
Tod
The Wolves didn’t have any luck in the lottery last year. They were scheduled to pick #3 and that is where they picked. They have never, in the history of the franchise, moved up in the lottery.
Tod, winning the rights to pick OJ Mayo was almost as lucky as winning the rights to Christian Laetner. It reminds me of the calls I get that I’ve just won the opportunity to purchase a time share…
Since the wolves entered the league the following teams in the Western Conference have had a top 2 pick: Portland, Seattle (OKC), Houston, LAC, Memphis, San Antonio, Golden State, Dallas, and Charlotte (NO).
The following teams, with times in the lottery in paranthesis, have not: Lakers (2), Phoenix (3), Denver (8), Utah (3), Sacramento (10).
The wolves during this period have been in the lottery 12 times and the only team that approaches their bad luck, the Kings, won the lottery in 1989 when the Wolves weren’t eligible but still were given the chance to pick Pooh.
Jama, actually the wolves DID get some luck last year. Because one team moved up ahead of them…they had to in fact “win” a drawing just to stay at 3.
That being said..they are in fact the unluckiest franchise in the league. You KNOW they will be drafting #3 this year as there are 2 sure fire players in this draft. Then once again we’ll be forced to make a pick that will be debated for years.
jama - For The Wolves to take on a player like Nazr Mohammed, there’s no way we’d have to give up our No. 18 pick. Charlotte would give Mohammed away for free if a taker presented itself. Even though Ford and Barbosa are better than Mohammed, I’d bet that Indy and Phx would also be happy to dump those contracts too.
Assuming a team is looking to dump salary, they would happily give up a 2-4 year contract commitment for an expiring contract and a late 1st-round pick.
Look at the possible cash-savings for a cash-strapped team like Indiana. The contract for its No. 13 pick is going to be approximately $13M over the life of the rookie contract. Use TJ Ford as the veteran example. He is owed $19M over the next two years. The No. 28 pick’s rookie contract will total about $6.5M. Cardinal is due $6.75M and then comes off the book.
So a TJ Ford, No. 13 for Brian Cardinal, No. 28 would save The Pacers a whopping $18.75M! Do you really think a cash-strapped team like Indiana would balk at the possibility of saving $18.75M over the difference between a No. 18 and No. 28 pick?
Now the first question is whether Glen Taylor would do that. The second question is whether that would be a smart move for us to take on a veteran contract. But talent-wise, value-wise that trade would basically be something like TJ Ford-Eric Maynor FOR Brian Cardinal-Wayne Ellington.
Ford is rumored to be very available as Jarret Jack is much cheaper and was also pretty effective. But TJ Ford is only 26 and averaged 15ppg, 5 apg, 1.2 spg and hits is shots from the field and FT line.
I think Indy would seriously consider that swap.
Pretty sure now that Taylor is looking for merely a “front’ for the front office. A figurehead who doesn’t really have any power and that way the current people (Stack, Hoiberg, maybe even McHale) can stay in power behind the scenes….very disillusioning but expected.
I would like the Wolves to get better now, just a reality check on the Wolves pre-Taylor/McHale being one of the two biggest long-running disasters of the past 30 years (Grizzlies in Vancouver being the other). Missing the playoffs is one thing, single-digit wins another.
Whoever is GM, I try Miller for Hinrich, and see if you can get Tayshuan Prince for Cardinal, Smith or Gomes, and maybe the 18. (Detroit dumped Chauncey for nothing, so maybe they do it.) Veteran leadership and quality minutes to help the young players develop. A healthy Corey Brewer after playing with Prince for a few seasons could be scary. That team goes to the playoffs in 09-10 easily, and could make some noise.
The pre-McHale regimes produced an average of 21 wins per season. We’ve won 22 and 24 in the post-KG era. In between, we won a total of two playoff series in 12 years. The Taylor/McHale record is nothing to be proud of or defend.
Foo - I like TJ, but he is way too injury prone…he scares me.
Matt - I really like it!
I put Hinrich and TJ Ford in the same category. Both average about $8.5M per year over the life of their current contracts, both are young and have a lot of experience running the point at a high level.
I like Tayshaun Prince and would be excited if we could get him, but I think I’d personally prefer to just give Brewer the reins at SF and let him run with it. To me, Prince and Brewer are very similar players. Prince is just older, further along the developmental process (i.e. - currently a better player) and much more pricy.
Just typing this words feels like a stretch, but “I agree with you that adding Hinrich/Ford, Prince and 2-3 1st-round draft picks would put us into the playoffs NEXT YEAR.”
Swan - I tend to agree with you on TJ Ford… his injury history is the only thing that concerns me. He did manage to play in 74 games (averaging over 30 mpg) last year, though. But before that it was:
03-04 - 55 games
05-06 - 72 games
06-07 - 75 games
07-08 - 51 games
I can deal with 70+ games, but I have to admit that those two seasons of 55 and 51 games scare me a bit.
Sean - Thats dumb. Show me another expansion franchise that was able to go to the playoffs 8 straight times in its first 20 years in the modern era. I’m actually very proud of them for that.
40% of the time of the teams existence they made the playoffs ? And considering 3-5 of those came when we couldn’t add draft picks due to the J. Smith debacle ? Thats impressive.
Now don’t give me this “KG” junk either. He gets all of the good and none of the bad, while management gets all of the bad and none of the good ? Nope.
Foo - Ford is the guy with the neck problem yeah ? Stay away !
Swan
Why exactly didn’t the Wolves have any draft picks? Can we blame management or was that KG’s fault too?
I’d rather have Tinsley than Ford and I wouldn’t touch Tinsley with a ten foot pole.
Looking back at Foo’s trade possibilities the only players the Wolves should even be interested in bringing in are Lopez or possibly Barbosa. The rest of those guys are complete stiffs and would collect dust on the bench next to Madsen.
Swan - I hear you on TJ Ford’s neck, but he did prove to be healthy last year. I’d say it’s a good risk. But I’d still prefer Kirk Hinrich… similar players, but Hinrich hits a higher percentage of his 3-pointers.
Jama - Sure you can blame em for that…but to call 40% rate to make the playoffs for an expansion team something not to be proud of is ridiculous.
Swan — If making the playoffs is your standard, then the Wolves are third out of four in accomplishment among their peer expansion teams (8/20 with two playoff series wins). The Hornets (11/21 with five playoff series wins) and the Heat (13/21 with 10 playoff series wins and a NBA title) have gone to the playoffs more frequently and done better once they got there. No, neither of those teams have made the playoffs eight years in a row, but then again, they haven’t had the long post-expansion playoff droughts like the one we are in now.
What blame does KG take? No one forced Taylor and McHale to sign those contracts. Does KG deserve some blame for his play in the playoffs? Yes, some, particularly early on in his career.
Jama - Ya on the Tinsley / Ford.
Foo - They are begging to get rid of Tinman…not Ford…they like him.
Barbosa might be a viable cheaper option…and one I suggested a few months ago.
I don’t like the idea of trading expiring contracts for bad contracts and picks. Let’s wait until we get cap space. At that time, we can just trade for any contract we want because with room under the cap, we don’t have to trade for equal value under the collective bargaining agreement.
Swan — Actually, I’m incorrect. The Wolves are fourth out of four. The Magic (11/20 with seven playoff series wins) have been more successful than the Wolves, too.
jama - you are obviously trying to make a point, because nobody would rather have Jamaal Tinsley over TJ Ford. But I’ll take your point as nothing more than not wanting Ford. But I still don’t understand that. He proved healthy last year, is a big upgrade over what we’ve got, and he produced very well.
As for my trade scenarios with Charlotte, Indy and Phx - I’d also be a big fan of adding Robin Lopez. But one other guy I’d be thrilled to add is Roy Hibbert. He’s definitely a plodder in the “stiff” variety. But he’s a cheap, legit center who defends the rim very well. At such a small salary, I’d be very happy to add him.
The guy I’d want the least from that list is Nazr Mohammed… terrible contract on that dude. But if I were the new Minnesota GM, I’d still probably engage in discussions with Charlotte about Mohammed just to see how badly they want to dump him. Would they offer a 1st-rounder and a young player (Ajinca?) or two future 1st-rounders? I read during the season that Charlotte would be willing to give up a lot to any team willing to take Mohammed off their hands.
Sean - East is least. Outside of the last 2 for the Hornets…all came in the weak east era.
Foo - Whoever the next GM is has the luxury of not being McHale…someone who could potentially get fleeced in deals. Whoever gets the job should call every single GM in the league and have the following convo:
New Wolves GM: Hello (Team) GM…so…how stupid do you think I am ?
(Lets just pick Lakers for now): We’ll give you Adam Morrison and Shannon Brown and cash for Corey Brewer, Kevin Love & two future first rounders !
New Wolves GM: Get bent ! You realize I’m not Kevin McHale right ?
Lakers GM: Oh, sorry, we still have the “ridiculous trade proposals to offer K. McHale if he calls” on the ole bulletin board. How about Ariza for Foye ?
New Wolves GM: Throw in a first rounder coming to us and its a deal !
Swan — The Hornets and the Magic each had three years where they finished .500 or better and missed the playoffs in the 1990s. So the East wasn’t always as weak as it was today. I seem to recall that a team from the East was winning a lot of NBA Championships during that timeframe…
OK, well, how about looking head-to-head.
Here is the Wolves’ record against those teams:
vs. the Hornets (21-27, .438)
vs. the Magic (16-24, .400)
vs. the Heat (18-21, .462)
That’s a combined 55-72, a .433 winning percentage.
Sean - Oh come on…don’t use the Jordan exception…thats unfair ! Outside of the Bulls, the Pacers and Knicks were the only other decent 90’s team from the east…end o story.
Teams really aren’t expansion teams after about 5 years in the league. At what point are the Wolves no longer an expansion team?
Swan,
What about the Heat?
Swan — Out of the four expansion teams in the Wolves’ era, the Wolves are last in:
* playoff appearances
* playoff series wins
* head-to-head record
* overall record
* .500 or better seasons
They also have the the longest streaks of not making the playoffs from their inception and the longest streak of not making the playoffs after making their first playoff appearance.
The Wolves are clearly the least accomplished franchise out of the four. You can spin all you want, but the facts aren’t on your side.
You’ll be proud to know that the Wolves do have a better record than the Clippers and the three expansion teams who have come into the league subsequently, though. When shall we throw the parade?
Sean -
It really is the Wolves fault they didn’t win the Lottery and get Shaq, or that they didn’t win the Lottery and get Dwight Howard. Or they didn’t win the Lottery and Get Webber and parlay that into Hardway. Clearly Orlando’s superior ownership and management was responsible for these draft picks.
Sean - Today works. Don’t always have to put a negative spin on things !
Rodman - What about the Heat ? Do you think I forgot they won a title ? Or are you saying they were good in the 90’s ?
Alonzo, Tim Hardaway, Mashburn, Glen Rice. It was the last 4 years of the 1990s but they were great.
Sea Bass and TJ Ford are the same player. (nothing special). One thing about Hinrich is he played terrific defense in the Boston series. Who knew he could contain Pierce? We need scoring wings and guards. Any one of which we could have had instead of Ndi Ebi. Kendrick Perkins, Leandro Barbossa, Josh Howard.
A draft that will live in infamy
If you say so. I disagree. Above average for the decade…but not great. Plus Mashburn only played what ? Close to one full season with them….
The next time Kendrick Perkins lines up as a wing or guard will be his first time.
point being they were the three players drafted after.
smart–er dumass
OMG, at least 3 of the 35 players chosen after Ebi was taken with the 28th(?) pick were better. How long ago was that. I realize it was the only draft pick we had in like 6 years, but what are the odds of getting a good player at 28? Fairly small. I am so sick of people bringing that up, Hindsight is always 20/20. DROP IT.
The Wolves would have been so much better if they had done the following:
1991: Terrell Brandon
1992: Tom Gugliotta
1993: Vin Baker
1994: Eddie Jones
1995: KG
1996: Ray Allen
1997: Bobby Jackson
1998: Ricky Davis
1999: Richard Hamilton
Then their lineup would have been
PG: Brandon, Jackson
SG: Allen, Hamilton
SF: Davis, Jones
PF: KG, Vin Baker, Gugliotta
C: ?
Shoot, the team would still need a Center, too bad Thabeet was available in 2000.
NO THABEET ! THAT WOULD BE AWFUL !
Swan — I’m not putting a negative spin on things. I’m merely reporting the facts. This organization hasn’t accomplished anything meaningful in its first 20 years. Some of that is bad lottery luck, but more of it can be attributed to bad ownership and bad personnel decisions. It’s delusional to be proud of what this organization has accomplished.
Criticizing the Ebi pick isn’t purely an execrise in second-guessing. There were plenty of folks who had issues with the pick at the time of the pick, and it’s also certainly clear that the Wolves coaches utterly failed to do anything to spur the kid’s development.
Sean - Can a father not be proud of a gay-midget-one footed-racist-half blind-half witted son with a speech impediment without being delusional ?
For those of you who couldn’t get on the Bill Simmons as GM bandwagon, check out this exchange today with Malcolm Glazwell. His response regarding how a pro-team would institute a full court press at the beginning of the 2nd and 4th quarters using guys 10-12 on the bench was outside of the box, and imo brilliant.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/090513/part2
Centrist - The only problem is he is trying to be GM….not coach. Unless he could spot the players that would fit that mold.
I love the new world order of the internet age, where the access to information makes everyone an expert. Forgetting the fact that it’s fun for all of us to get on the blog here and pretend were the smartest guys in the room, does it really mean that we believe that the positions that should be occupied by folks who have expertise should be populated by people with no experience at all? Don’t any of you have jobs that require some real on the job training rather than basic smarts and a few good ideas? I’m not saying that Simmons could never be a GM, just that he has absolutely no idea how to actually be one right now.
Fiveanddime: While I want my pilot to have flown before, my doctor to have operated before, and my trash collector, well, you get the point. Here are what I the skills I want a GM of my favorite team to be good at.
1. Player Scouting
2a. Coaching staff selection and relationship with the Coach.
2b. Relationship with other teams and agents to acquire players.
3. Collective Bargaining Agreement and Salary Cap knowledge, drafting of contracts.
4. Salesman to sponsors and fans
5. Rapport with Owner
6. Leader in the front office to inspire all levels of staff from Marketing, Sales, Operations, etc.
Now working in any office environment or orgazation is going to prepare you for #6. People are leaders or their not. #5 is subjective that I can’t evaluate.
Criteria 1-4, IMO, don’t require front office experience to obtain. Is evaluating players in a team draft room going to help me prepare for player scouting any more than making the same evaluations as a fan? No. All the information is present for a fan to attain these skills from stats, to youtube videos, to nearly every game being on TV and cable pacakages which allow you to order them for a fairly reasonable price. The best way to develop those skills is to talk about your opinions and learn from your mistakes, a writer clearly does this on a day to day basis.
#3 is important, but hiring outside counsel or a cap expert to be your guru on the cap is fine with me.
2A and 2B are the only items on the list where I think job experience may be helpful, but can we agree talking to people is not rocket science.
I just don’t see where actual front office experience is going to lead to a higher probablity of success. Especially if we believe a person with no experience has creative ideas or an in-depth knowledge of player scouting which is the most important aspect of the job.
Centrist,
You’re starting to convince me. My problem is whether Simmons himself would be happy doing all the “people things” that a GM would have to do well. He’s a writer by trade - a particularly funny and knowledgeable one - but a writer nonetheless. And, as their Significant Others will tell you, writers are not the easiest people to live with.
He’s also his own worse enemy, if he is indeed serious about his bid for GM. I say this because of his tendency to play so fast-and-loose in mocking other FO staff and coaches. His now gaining their trust - even on clearly win-win deals - is already compromised… a bit of bad judgement on his part that most of his fans apparently haven’t noticed.
On the other hand, I do agree that it would be seriously exciting to have him on staff in some capacity. He says he’d take the GM position without pay in the first year in exchange for the freedom to write a book on it. Not likely this will happen but is Glen Taylor open-minded enough to have him aboard, not as a GM or VP, but in something between this and a consultancy role?
The problem with a buck-stops-here authority position is that, if he were writing about it, we’d only get a one-sided look at those decisions where he’d be lobbying to have his way. The dynamic would be just too crazy and I’m sure he’d either throw in the towel in disgust or be fired mid-season with the book only half done.
On the other hand, a two-part alternative could be tremendously interesting: 1) he has the ear of inside staff at the highest levels in the T-Wolf organization; and 2) he does what he does best and brings us the behind-the-scenes working of what’s shaping up to be an NBA Cinderella franchise.
You see here is where I part ways with most contributors here.
They say “The Customer is never wrong.”… which is true unless he or she IS wrong. I’ve thought for some time that the fans, in many ways, are failing the T-Wolves and not the other way around. It would be exciting to see sell-out crowds instead of Target Center’s half-empty, three-quarters-dead fan attendance. (And those are the believers!)
But this will only come with more winning, with less boosterism, and with an openness to new ideas.
I DO trust the current staff and players to put a winning team on the floor. It just staggers me that people are so down on this team, and even on Glen Taylor himself. There’s been some really great basketball played this past season… look again at the cold-blooded, under-the-gun shooting; appreciate the evolution towards a break-out offence and fluid half-court ball movement; and give the guys some credit for playing with heart in many the end-of-game epic struggles.
On the other hand, no one could claim there’s any “homecourt advantage” in having to play in Target Center. We DO need the fans to come back, and it’s wonderful and surprising that the T-Wolves fan base has gotten more-than-a-little excited about the possibility of Simmons’ involvement.
So what’s to be done? I seriously doubt Taylor reads any of what’s written in this blog, but maybe it’s time to sound out Bill Simmons himself on a second option.
